Bitcoin Triangle or Trend Break, Part 2
Updated
In my previous analysis i talked about a possible Bart move in my last update. Now we didn't see a shake out wick for Bitcoin, but we saw exactly that with ETH. While it did that that shake out wick i posted this chart in my public channel and comparing that move to the one from a few months ago. Then it continued to drop much sooner, but don't know yet to think if it's a sign that the support is holding or that it's just a matter of time. But think it's clear it doesn't look great and needs to bounce up soon, otherwise we could see another nasty dump.
About Bitcoin, yesterday i posted that chart on the right as well, showing how the market continues to move, but keep the candle closes inside that yellow range. A close outside the yellow zone should mean an attempt of the red or green zone. Think only a 4h close below or above the red/green would give the answer for the direction coming days. Now 9350/300 seems to be a big stop hunt zone. Now for that i see 2 options:
It breaks and we see a strong move up, or we see it break but see price barely get above 9450ish. If the last one happens, than it's a big chance it was just a shake out of shorts and we see another big drop. So if 9350 breaks, bulls need to see it rally to at least 9500/600.
For the rest, the key zone of 9600/700 still stands, that level never really broke except for a wick past week. So that level is still key for the bulls. On the downside it's more difficult. For that i see 2 options:
We drop small and in steps, then good chance we see something like the blue level. What the bears want to see is something like the red line, so one big drop soon. Showing acceleration and volume on the downside, if so, big chance we might even be headed to 7500 zone.
In a previous analysis from a week ago, i described a scenario i had in mind which is the chart here below. As you can see, eventually it played out almost perfectly, but i am showing this as well to show how random and manipulative this market is in this range from past 2 months. Eventually the bearish wedge was real, that is confirmed because of the fast drop we had (usually happens with a wedge). but just what they did in the yellow zone. Dropping below it, then bumping against it only to still complete the wedge.
What now, must say, i have no conviction in a direction, but i do still think a move down is more likely coming week or so. But what i don't know is if they do another move up first to 9400/500 before heading down. Think above 9500ish bulls might be slightly in favor and a real break of 9700ish should trigger a bigger move up.
As described above, even if we drop from here, there is a blue and red line option. So if your a bear and we start to drop, but slow and in small steps, i advice to be very aware because it could become yet another trap.
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Previous analysis:
About Bitcoin, yesterday i posted that chart on the right as well, showing how the market continues to move, but keep the candle closes inside that yellow range. A close outside the yellow zone should mean an attempt of the red or green zone. Think only a 4h close below or above the red/green would give the answer for the direction coming days. Now 9350/300 seems to be a big stop hunt zone. Now for that i see 2 options:
It breaks and we see a strong move up, or we see it break but see price barely get above 9450ish. If the last one happens, than it's a big chance it was just a shake out of shorts and we see another big drop. So if 9350 breaks, bulls need to see it rally to at least 9500/600.
For the rest, the key zone of 9600/700 still stands, that level never really broke except for a wick past week. So that level is still key for the bulls. On the downside it's more difficult. For that i see 2 options:
We drop small and in steps, then good chance we see something like the blue level. What the bears want to see is something like the red line, so one big drop soon. Showing acceleration and volume on the downside, if so, big chance we might even be headed to 7500 zone.
In a previous analysis from a week ago, i described a scenario i had in mind which is the chart here below. As you can see, eventually it played out almost perfectly, but i am showing this as well to show how random and manipulative this market is in this range from past 2 months. Eventually the bearish wedge was real, that is confirmed because of the fast drop we had (usually happens with a wedge). but just what they did in the yellow zone. Dropping below it, then bumping against it only to still complete the wedge.
What now, must say, i have no conviction in a direction, but i do still think a move down is more likely coming week or so. But what i don't know is if they do another move up first to 9400/500 before heading down. Think above 9500ish bulls might be slightly in favor and a real break of 9700ish should trigger a bigger move up.
As described above, even if we drop from here, there is a blue and red line option. So if your a bear and we start to drop, but slow and in small steps, i advice to be very aware because it could become yet another trap.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Must say, these whales are pretty damn smart, doing the 4h close in that yellow zone, so it's stays uncertain and then the next candle you see price dump.Anyway, no real big volume drop in combo with it bouncing up from that support line once again you can see on the left, making things still unclear. But think if it's stil bearish, it should drop from current level already. If it goes higher, it could have just been another buy the dip. Would say above 9150ish, it's prob over the bears already. Until then, there are some resistances it seems, like that blue line and that green and yellow box from past days. Also looks a bit like a bearish wedge as well. So it could all just be a retest again of former support.
Note
I remember during that drop on the left few months ago, it was acting kinda weird as well. It was dropping but kept bouncing up and OI kept increasing as well, kinda similar to what we are seeing now. So where that normally would look like bullish signs, then i meant nothing at all and eventually price simply dumped. So think as long as we don't break 9100/150 bears are in favor. Note
ETH "fractal" i showed a few days ago is till playing out, dropped from 242 to 216 low. If the fractal is real, would mean there is much more to go on the downside. But similar as Bitcoin, made a strong bounce but also still below big resistances as we can see in this chart. So think above 228/229 the bulls probably have taken over, until then, it could just be a retest
Note
On the downside looks like a local support of 8900/89130. Bulls should hold that to form a higher lowNote
New Bitcoin analysis:
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