BTC/USD Final Destination Upper-Mid $200's (Perhaps Lower)
This weekly chart is what I'm using to maintain my short position. Obviously the shorter term signals like the 1D or less are more valuable for spotting reversals, but I'm using this chart to confirm my belief that my 1D signals are all saying this down trend is far from over. In fact it might just be building steam.
The weekly MACD has not crossed the 0 line with building momentum in all the MT.GOX data that I can find. This is a serious sell signal (as people are finding out they need to be careful with margin long positions now). With the timing of the ADX turning up to signal a new bear trend starting I'm quite honestly not ruling out that this move might find itself well below $200. However I do not want to get greedy thinking BTC will go to $50, so I'm using the 78% retracement of the entire bull run as a starting target and it seems to line up somewhat close to the most likely candidate for a trend line of the previous bull run (puts us in the upper-mid $200's area).
The weekly RSI will have a long way to go to find itself in oversold territory. Notice also that the previous all time high of $1163 shows pretty clear divergence on the RSI as well as ADX (helps to conclude $1163 was the top for now).
Finally volume is starting to pick up suggesting this is the new trend.
Be careful that a lot of people might think $350 area is bottom. I'm thinking there's a chance it might bounce hard there and planning accordingly.
The weekly MACD has not crossed the 0 line with building momentum in all the MT.GOX data that I can find. This is a serious sell signal (as people are finding out they need to be careful with margin long positions now). With the timing of the ADX turning up to signal a new bear trend starting I'm quite honestly not ruling out that this move might find itself well below $200. However I do not want to get greedy thinking BTC will go to $50, so I'm using the 78% retracement of the entire bull run as a starting target and it seems to line up somewhat close to the most likely candidate for a trend line of the previous bull run (puts us in the upper-mid $200's area).
The weekly RSI will have a long way to go to find itself in oversold territory. Notice also that the previous all time high of $1163 shows pretty clear divergence on the RSI as well as ADX (helps to conclude $1163 was the top for now).
Finally volume is starting to pick up suggesting this is the new trend.
Be careful that a lot of people might think $350 area is bottom. I'm thinking there's a chance it might bounce hard there and planning accordingly.
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