Short

Updated

BTC/USD - Moon mission: Delayed

Same scenario on Bitcoin. Some people call it fractal, the rest just say "this time its different".

Retest of 9k (minimum) is needed for confirmation as support zone before the bull run.

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One small run left on Bitcoin, starting right now.

Trade active

Short till 10.5k, stop loss 12.1k

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Look at the bright side... its still "bullish" on the hourly +. Dont check the 15min bars or less, no one does i dont know why they even exist...

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There it goes, the blood of the perma-bulls. 5min candles win.

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Alright, trading corrective waves is tricky, there is no clear indication when this is gonna stop, but the mid 10k levels offer the first mini support for a bounce. I havent label the waves yet because we need to see them develop and then use that info. The decline this time is much more aggresive, but hey! you can check the left part of the image, you may find something interesting.

The first REAL support is at 10k tho, but that may take days...

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Some typos here and there, pretty common for me. :)

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Bitcoin has more room to go lower. But i guess price action and volume based traders can play with it for now.

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There is one more wave missing on Bitcoin before we see some bounce, but we are getting there.

Trade closed: target reached

Short target reached (10.5k). The down trend looks still strong here, there should be a bounce soon either as a B or 4th way down.

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Bitcoin gets a bounce here, it will probably dance insde the box ( <10.7k) before aiming higher.

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There might be a minor wave missing. If this is not the local bottom, it should be around 11300 +-50.
Divergences on RSI and WT, SMI needs to go a little lower for a recharge.

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Well, not the best grammar, it should be missing a small wave so the bottom is very close if not here.

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10300 +- 50 * sorry my bad . It should be on its way.

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Lots of blood here. I will try to make some reason out of this.

Pro tip: flash crashes on the way up or down indicate where the peak/bottom is (slightly higher/lower).

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There is an interesting fractal with this bounce and the bounce from 6k, but its on a much smaller scale, if this is indeed a fractal it should continue like this.

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Ok this is the best i can get with the current data. As long as it doesnt get through 10k, I expect a MINIMUM drop to 8.6k. If it gets close to mid 10k levels ( which i dont see it for now) , the MIN target is raised to 9.2k.

Bottom line, we will see a lower low.

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I have mirrored it so its easier to understand.

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You dont get this info with trendlines and 4h candles boys!!
I had to get that out....! :)

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This is what i expect in the next few mins, dont trade based on this...

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Well hours, not mins. So it might be a good idea to trade alts before Bitcoin drains them on its C wave up.

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Bigger B done on Bitcoin, C up has already started. It should get between 1.236 - 1.618 so it can appear as "Resistance" to the price action/ volume based traders.
Fib one is also a possibility.

It has to make some kind of H&S pattern on its way down, to convience the rest.

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RSI rising wedge, one wave missing.
This can complete the whole C or part of it. This is not a trading area.

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I will try to provide updates on this on my twitter since i wont have access to my PC during the next hours and also dont want this post to get clustered.

No need to follow, just make sure you refresh the page from time to time.

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Quick update on this. Its far from done, there is at least one minor wave missing.
As of now, lots of fibs are around the 8.6-8.8 area. This is a potential area for a bottom. Personally i want to be sure before calling that a bottom, since i think it can get even lower. This is still a no trading zone.

Trade closed: target reached

Both targets reached, one more left

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Its funny how every "expert" analyst suddently turns bearish while i was during all this silly run to 11.7 and getting mocked that i miss the bigger picture by looking at the smaller time frames. How convenient!
Well i hope you guys got your answer, since i know you are checking out my ideas!

Back to Bitcoin, its not done yet. One more drop to ~7.6k This was just the expected fib support levels.

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This is an attempt of catching the knife, dont follow it unless you understand the risk. It can still have pretty long wick to 7.3k levels before some real bounce.

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This is not a triangle anymore. It looks like a clear ABC for the 4th on the smaller timeframes.

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Alright, i was talking with monkia for the past hours and im having second thoughs on this. There is a chance that we trade on the 7.6-9.2 channel for the next days till this is proven as a strong support. It lines with the price action at this area after the 6k bounce and volume is slowly starting to appear.

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The I II III, can be an abc which lines with my initial idea as a bigger WXY, and we take of from here (or slightly lower) without the need of retesting.

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Bitcoin should be on its way down.

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Beware folks, this is not a normal move and liquified a lot of short positions. But someone was planning this along because they went long few hours ago. Nothing on the chart or the oscillators points to a move like this.

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Trade closed: target reached

Final target reached, this scenario is still valid unless it goes much lower.

Acel

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Acel

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