Short

Bitcoin H&S target reached, now bigger H&S for big crash 25%+

Updated

It has been a wonderfull day of trading again, it's just to easy sometimes. I hope some of you also made some good trades. This has been another H&S wich i predicted, even before the left shoulder was completed. I do have to say, the one on the 17.200 high on 7 december 2017, is still the best one with a 3K drop within 4 hours :)

Bitcoin target is 17.100/17.300, than short, H&S target 14.400

It is looking very weak now, after all the efforts of a few (the support bidding what i mentioned several times yesterday) of holding the 12.400 to 12.200 levels, it still made a big drop!. Even the 11.600/11.800 only gave a temporarily support.
For the short term bearish scenario, it should idealy stay below the 11.800. 12.300 is really the max for the bearish momentum to stay strong. As you know i have opened a big short position wich i started to open from the 12.600 and added up untill the 13.000. I have been trading allot in the mean time, because that's what i do, but for the 'longer' term (days/week), i have lowered my stop to around the 12.300 to guarantee a nice profit. My target is still the aorund the previous low at 9K and probably even lower. This was my plan from the moment i almost perfectly nailed the bottom at 9.400 and turned long there. I would wait for the 12.500ish levels to go short again at higher prices for the next big wave down! So far this longer term plan has worked out perfectly and i will stay with it.
I will however adjust my stop ofcourse and i will adjust my view, only when i will see new signals that tell me to do so. BTC can always be very surprising.

The one thing i am surprised of the most, the small amount of likes i got. I have some new followers the last few days, but it's still really disappointing when you look at the fact that i pointed out the bottom around 9.400 and predicting the top now around 13.000. That's why i have not been giving any updates today.

So, followers for the ones who appreciate my charts and analysis and the many updates and even more the time and effort i put into them. I suggest you give some back :) I am not talking about money, just try to increase my views. One follower suggested i should use twitter, maybe i will do so in the future, but i just don't have the time to look into it for now. Maybe for now someone can do it FOR me instead :).

Note

I have seen this trick to many times already, to get fooled again!! Looks like the final support is loosing and it will accelerate downwards, and than all of a sudden a big upwards spike with volume. I got fooled by this several times when i started trading BTC. Just knew it would happen again, that's why i called it in my last update of my previous chart idea

''''For now it think it wil find some support around the 11.200, make another, maybe last small upswing towards 12.500/12.700, than it could go drop below the 11K!'''

Note

By the way, for every one who has been trying to reach me through email, my outlook does not recieve any emails from tradingview anymore, for maybe 2 months already. I have not figured out yet what the problem is. Just so you know i am not ignoring you :)

Note

This blue area is what i expect it stays within and will drop out of within the coming hours

Note

This one :)

Note

Target of this bullish flag was 11.800, but it got sold immediately. Like i mentioned earlier, 11.800 would idealy be the maximum of this correction. Lets see if the flag gives support at 11.500. If it drops below it and below the 11.400, chances increase that this 11.800 was the top!

Note

looks like a breakout

Note

for bullish momentum, should stay above 10.500/10.400

Note

Bullish momentum seems is still high, but decreasing now slowely. It could have a get slightly above 11K, with 11.300 as a max

Note

This small flag has failed, like i mentioned the previous update, bullish momentum is decreasing. It will probably drop towards 10.550 to form an H&S. BUT this small H&S could fail and make another big spike up towards the 11.100/11.300

Note

And there is the big spike, what a f..cking joke these crypto markets, manipulation is much worse than the normal stock markets, the believers still believe the crypto's will be our salvation :).
Anyway don't get to confused about these movements, just desperate attempts to give buyers confidence to get in!
But even worse, trying to push to higher prices so they can
- trade with profit
- or try to dump higher them selves.
I have been seeing these moves many times, also the past few days, most of the time they are just temporarily. I think there are still to many people trying to get out of Bitcoin at least for the short term!
It's getting higher as i write this, i think i should be a script writer :) Sometimes i think the market is waiting for my updates hahaha LOL :)

Note

10.600 held as a shot term support, twice now. Now it should have the strenght to look up the low 11K levels, from there it should find some resistance and drop again.

Note

It's almost a guarantee that it will make a drop towards the low of last week. Even in the bullish scenario, it is still within a double bottom pattern. Unless it realy breaks out of this blue pattern (dont stare to blindly at the lines) than it will break below the 10K again and bounce up strong from the previous low again.
Bearish scenario, we will keep on dropping. Depends on the signals and patterns it forms IF it gets to the low again

Note

10.500 should have held, the bullish flag. Now this blue area has to hold for the short term bulls. Otherwise i see another attempt to break the 10K

Note

I dont know why i have this many views, likes and comments. Also the extra followers. Maybe some of you did what i asked to do in return for my efforts. I want to say thank you for those who did :).
But maybe finally people start to appreciate an objective opinion about these markets. It's not just that i spot on lately, i have done that many times before (ofcourse not always, also wrong sometimes).
Forn now, i am still satisfied enough to keep posting some new ideas and updates. Maybe i will post some views about other coins to in the near future. Good luck all

Note

Big chance it wil make another attempt to get above the 11K

Note

Thank you everyone for the kind words :)

Note

This is what i think will happen for the next day or 2. But only based on my intell now. Patterns on the minute chart can change views or me, so i always try to adapt, within the bigger picture

Note

10.700 is an obvious (small) resistance, if it can take it out within the hour, than my previous chart is more likely

Note

Going as planned so far, for bearish momentum to stay in extreme modus, it stays below the 10.900, if that happens, i think we will look up he low 9K very soon. But i think it will go towards 11.100/11.300, than consolid

Note

than consolidate between the 10.800 and 11.200ish for a while, than wil start to turn downwards again

Note

Previous chart (Coinbase) consolidation looks like a bigger bearish flag.

Note

There it is, i am shorting some at 11280

Note

What a joke, I cant short BTC at Bitfinex now, i got the first ones in. Now it just gives an error. What a fucking joke hahaha LOL, they are really getting desperate now

Note

It will probably turn down now! If it stays above 10.900/11.000 expect another upwave. Otherwise this was mostly short covering!

Note

Anyone else have the same problem at Bitfinex? Not being able to go short on BTC?

Note

these 3 scenario's will probably happen. If it stays above the 11.100, This Impulse wave is far from over, makes the small H&S and bounce up from 10.900/10.800 stil very bullish but with it's limits. Third option, like i said before, mostly short covering and will slowely continue down again. Ofcourse we all now wich one I think will happen. But i am nog blind, that's why i show these 3 options, just to stay as objective as possible!

Note

H&S is being turned into a bullish flag it seems

Note

No buying power to push through 11.400, that's disappointing. Now it's a double top, 11.100 must hold for bullish momentum. Below this level next support is 10.850

Note

Some funny action going on at 11.000 level, somebody is really unloading BTC at 11.000 a little above. Think fifth attemt of buyers who have bought at least 1000 BTC now at thos levels, but he keeps filling up the bid with 100 BTC, when it's almost bought, gets refilled with 100 again, gets above it and straight away unloads again. Spoofy who has bought up BTC from the 10.000 up? now unloading? Or is just a big player who is selling big. Or is everyone getting fooled with wash trading :)

Note

They just put a 400+ BTC sell wall in at 10950. This does not have to be bearish, games are being played to confuse traders, everytime it has a different outcome.

For now if the this level holds, it could still go up, otherwise bearish momentum will kick in again and we will probably retest the lows again

Note

There is no bounce, so 80% it will drop more now

Note

Oke, lets evaluate what happened earlier, the big sell orders in the book and the buying of it. Fact is, we are 500 to 600 points lower now. Difference between selling into to bid book, you create selling pressure and red volume candles. If you do it like they did, you make it look like there are some big buyers in play ready to push it higher with a TA chart confirming this and the GREEN volume candles. And in general, you create volume. How much of this was wash trading or not i dont know, probably most of it.
I saw the same shit at the 17.200 top, when it dropped below the 16K i did mention it in one of the updates on January 8. Spoofy had a sell in the book of 800 BTC, i don't remember exactly, but i got bought within 1 minute, the biggest buy order was 300 BTC. 5 minutes later bitcoin started to drop again and we all now what happened later on.

These were my comments:

Comment: SPoofy again with 800 BTC at 15.800, just pocket change LOL :)
Jan 8
Comment: Was not spoofy this time, this seller pulled up the price with 10 dollar while other exchanges were rising, at 18.850 there was one buyer who bought 300 btc at one. Does not seem like something normal to me. I dont know, anyone who has an opinion or knows more, please share
Jan 8
Comment: I am out at 15.760.
What a joke, if this is not manipulation than i dont know what is. Who buys 300 btc at once, and does not know what he is doing. goes up 200 points and than within 5 minutes it just drops again
Jan 8
Comment:

Note

Nobody has an opinion about my last update? Because i THINK i have have figured 'spoofy' out, what his direction/intention is when he comes in action. But i wont share my findings untill some of you think about it too and share it with me :)

Note

Remember this picture? The double bottom pattern (that did not come true), can say that it broke out upwards now. But now a double top could have been formed here at 11.400/11.500. It got sold immediately the top, at Coinbase it got stuck at 11.400, where Bitstamp reached 11.500 and Bitfinex in between. This does not say very much, but it is something to look at and keep in mind.

Short term it is showing clear strenght! Something we can't deny. It made a higher low at 10.400 and it's still hanging around the 11.400 high now. Chances are a bit bigger that we will break through upwards than go down again. I will probably close my remaining short position if breaks through the 11.600ish.
Everything below the 13K is still bearish, so the bulls should not get to comfortable yet!

Note

TA wise, this is almost a guarantee it will break out upward, it got almost all the signs now. but i have a bad feeling about it (manipulation).

Note

I am shorting it (small position at 11520)

Note

I am closing this one at 11350/11400

Note

I am out

Note

Small fast profit, satified.
I will respond to other comments later

Note

This is what makes me so angry, so many people (daytraders in this case) just got fooled, just get robbed from their money. And they just get away with this shit. After big moves they create trading ranges of 200 to 400 points, play their game and than move it up or down. And almost no one notices this. With Alts its even worse and much much easier

Note

Just like i said, TA wise it was a guarantee it would break out upwards, If it was my first day, i would reall pump long positions from 11.200 and even more at 11.400. Now i short it when it seems to break out on the upside

Note

It will probably drop any minute now

Note

Part to of the drop will start now

Note

Now i am getting the feeling, the same game is being played on the downside. Probably trying to keep it in the 10.800 and 11.400 range

Note

It is taking to long, will probably drop

Note

This is typical sideways action, low volume, easy to steer. I give it 20% chance it will break out upwards above the 11.400/11.600. They wlll try to play this game as long as possible.

Note

It's getting pushed down, sell wall of 100 btc was not enough, they put in 650 at 11450.

Note

I am shorting it

Note

Posted a new chart

botje11

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.