Bitcoin Bull Flag Target 22.000, Part 2
Updated
The wedge i discussed yesterday somewhat reached it's target at 18.600 (target was 18.500ish) just now. While writing this it's a small push back at is trading around 18.900. As you can see in the chart, it has to break 19.000, think maybe even better to say 19.100. Since the market did two similar tricks in a week, as you can see in the chart here below.
I am comparing the 2 yellow circles, but one could say maybe it should be compared with the orange one. What's even more nasty, yesterday's yellow circle, it's 1H close closed at the high for automated systems being a buy signal. But that's the risk of trading in a correctional range.
Anyway, think if this attempt i just mentioned above will fail, there is a good chance we might drop inside of that yellow circle around 18.000/400. This is because the 18.500/600 is an obvious support zone, which could be abused by whales to break it, trigger stops and then fill up longs in that zone. This scenario is the red line i showed 2 days ago, which is not uncommon in bull flags.
Now if the 18.000ish would break, this theory is most likely wrong this time.
So i see 2 scenario's for the bull flag to succeed. First being that the 19.000/100 breaks now with the attempt we are seeing now. Where the bigger obstacles are still the 19.250ish and 19.500 level i mentioned few days ago.
The second scenario is that stop hunt into that yellow zone, then also the resistances are the same levels.
What i wrote in the previous analysis also still goes:
Since the 20Kish is a huge level in this market, i think it's necessary to see a big strong breakout rally if the 19.500/20.000 breaks. So with anything very slow, my advice would be to be cautious. In case we do see a strong breakout, big volume and the first move towards the 20.500 or so, i think it will be a matter of time until the target close to 22K will get reached.
A break of 18Kish, don't really know yet what could happen, but think a drop towards 17K could easily happen. As long as we don't see an extreme move/dump, as mentioned more often past weeks, i think the trend remains bullish .
Even if we break the 18K and drop much more, it would still be way too soon to call for the end of the bull trend. To which levels it could drop i don't dare to say. A drop below 15K would certainly not be any good, it could mean we will probably move inside the 20K/13K range for a much longer time. Think a break of 12/13K would be very bad and could trigger a possible bear market again. For now, i have no real reason at all to think this could happen.
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Previous analysis:
I am comparing the 2 yellow circles, but one could say maybe it should be compared with the orange one. What's even more nasty, yesterday's yellow circle, it's 1H close closed at the high for automated systems being a buy signal. But that's the risk of trading in a correctional range.
Anyway, think if this attempt i just mentioned above will fail, there is a good chance we might drop inside of that yellow circle around 18.000/400. This is because the 18.500/600 is an obvious support zone, which could be abused by whales to break it, trigger stops and then fill up longs in that zone. This scenario is the red line i showed 2 days ago, which is not uncommon in bull flags.
Now if the 18.000ish would break, this theory is most likely wrong this time.
So i see 2 scenario's for the bull flag to succeed. First being that the 19.000/100 breaks now with the attempt we are seeing now. Where the bigger obstacles are still the 19.250ish and 19.500 level i mentioned few days ago.
The second scenario is that stop hunt into that yellow zone, then also the resistances are the same levels.
What i wrote in the previous analysis also still goes:
Since the 20Kish is a huge level in this market, i think it's necessary to see a big strong breakout rally if the 19.500/20.000 breaks. So with anything very slow, my advice would be to be cautious. In case we do see a strong breakout, big volume and the first move towards the 20.500 or so, i think it will be a matter of time until the target close to 22K will get reached.
A break of 18Kish, don't really know yet what could happen, but think a drop towards 17K could easily happen. As long as we don't see an extreme move/dump, as mentioned more often past weeks, i think the trend remains bullish .
Even if we break the 18K and drop much more, it would still be way too soon to call for the end of the bull trend. To which levels it could drop i don't dare to say. A drop below 15K would certainly not be any good, it could mean we will probably move inside the 20K/13K range for a much longer time. Think a break of 12/13K would be very bad and could trigger a possible bear market again. For now, i have no real reason at all to think this could happen.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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New ETH analysis:
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Since i posted this analysis, the 19.000 was the first key resistance, but bull didn't come close to breaking it. Since the drops began, its still very weak, just having a very hard time to make a good bounce from the lows. It dropped a bit more than it should as well. For the bull flag version it would have been better to see it stay above the 18.200. For now, bulls have one important first job, that is breaking 18.450/400 very quickly. It has to break that zone and touch like 18.500/550. If so, there is a possibility for a the start of a bottom formation. Meaning it could then start to move inside a range of 18.100/18.700. But for the bull flag version, it should get close to 19.000 before the daily close tomorrow. Otherwise, the bull flag becomes very unlikely.
Because of the 18.200 it has become less likely already, but a strong bounce could still save it, but at the moment, not the most likely thing. First challenge is the 18.450ish
Note
To illustrate what i described above, is something like the blue line. So breaking the resistance and THEN it's allowed to bounce up and down a bit. The safer spot to get in is ideally the yellow zone. That is what i usually look for, so like a second higher low. On the long term it's always, by far, much better than trying to catch the low
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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