Bitcoin Long-Term Cycles - Pullbacks and Extensions
I put this model together last week prior to leaving for a trip. I considered publishing it then, but, go busy with my trip. I post it now with no changes over what I put together last week. Note: This model is based on the first 3 cycles of Bitcoin halvings where price takes a dump (bear market) then finds support and rallies to new highs. This occurs just before (dump) and just after (rally) a halving event. I have no idea if this "pullback-then-extension" model will hold up in the current cycle—cycle 4. I have no idea if some of the "duration" patterns shown here that are based on number of days up/down will follow patterns in prior cycles.
Here's a short overview of the model.
Cycles 1 and 2 fit the model where after a .70 pullback (as marked in the chart) Bitcoin surged to the 1.25 extension.
Cycle 3 had the pullback to to the .618 before bouncing upward.
Cycle 4 (current cycle) had a very minor bounce at .70 then fell to .618 where we are currently (as of June 16th). Should price close below this .618 level we are in unchartered territory.
The lowpoint from which I measure for the current cycle is always based on the low point from the prior cycle prior to the rally move. Again, prior cycles have shown this inflection point to occur around the. .70 to .618 pullback.
In each cycle there's several minor .70 pullbacks and extensions which I don't show here in an effort to minimize clutter. I debated whether to not include the time durations as well to prevent clutter. However, understanding the duration of a move is critically important, I leave it to the reader to try to spot duration patterns based on this analysis.
The white price projection lines I drew in the current cycle were drawn last week with "hope" that a .70 bounce was in play but also showing the reality that further downward movement to 0.618 was entirely possible (as occurred in 2018). I have no idea if this model will hold up or if Bitcoin and crypto is doomed.
Here's a short overview of the model.
Cycles 1 and 2 fit the model where after a .70 pullback (as marked in the chart) Bitcoin surged to the 1.25 extension.
Cycle 3 had the pullback to to the .618 before bouncing upward.
Cycle 4 (current cycle) had a very minor bounce at .70 then fell to .618 where we are currently (as of June 16th). Should price close below this .618 level we are in unchartered territory.
The lowpoint from which I measure for the current cycle is always based on the low point from the prior cycle prior to the rally move. Again, prior cycles have shown this inflection point to occur around the. .70 to .618 pullback.
In each cycle there's several minor .70 pullbacks and extensions which I don't show here in an effort to minimize clutter. I debated whether to not include the time durations as well to prevent clutter. However, understanding the duration of a move is critically important, I leave it to the reader to try to spot duration patterns based on this analysis.
The white price projection lines I drew in the current cycle were drawn last week with "hope" that a .70 bounce was in play but also showing the reality that further downward movement to 0.618 was entirely possible (as occurred in 2018). I have no idea if this model will hold up or if Bitcoin and crypto is doomed.
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