BitcoinLong
Bitcoin Gold S&P - Breakouts in the Week Ahead
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is setting up for another leg higher as it continues to consolidate in a typical pattern that favors a continuation of the prevailing trend. Just because we have a pattern does not imply it always plays out, but it does provide a piece of the puzzle as we do our analysis here.
We also want to look at levels where there are signs of supply and demand via order flow. Currently the two levels of interest are 9650 and 8600. A break of 9650 we are looking at 10,400 to trade quickly, and potentially a swing into the 11,300-11,900 area where there is a pretty decent supply zone.
On the bearish side a break of 8600 would likely bring 7800 into play and a potential swing into the 6600-7100 demand area. These types of consolidations generally equate to a strong breakout as breakout traders look to step in, once the move is confirmed.
In addition the structure leading up to this consolidation supports a continuation higher. In short looking for Bitcoin to break the range and move higher over the next week, though it may not be a clean swing. Often breakouts lead to throwbacks or pullbacks, so something to be aware of.
Gold:
Gold had a similar setup to Bitcoin, nice simple (ABCDE) type consolidation and then a strong breakout. Even though we did get a close above 1740 the market pulled back to retest the prevailing boundaries. This is very common and called a throwback.
Regardless this is still a bullish chart and though we are currently in a Gold Swing trade, we are interested in adding to our position on a continuation setup of minor lower high.
Two key order flow levels here are 1740 for bullish continuation and 1700 for a bearish setup and potential retest of the 1650 level. Our sights are on 1800 right now and above this level will be looking to trim out some more Gold inventory.
In the broader term very bullish on Gold and would not be surprised to see Gold at 2500 this time next year.
S&P
S&P was a little tricky for a few weeks as the market consolidated between the 2760 and 2945 levels. Not a triangle consolidation like Bitcoin or Gold, and not the cleanest consolidation box, but the structure is there.
Hindsight is always 2020, so we did close out some trades a couple weeks ago, when the lower high gave us some reason to pause in an area of major resistance. Yet the nice consolidation that happen this past week, provided us a comfort level that the market was wanting to break higher, so we added a couple stock trades and actually added to our portfolio a Biotech.
The key level here is 3040, which was a target / Resistance level, but we did close above 3040 and IF we take out the high of Friday's close we are looking for a potential swing to 3250.
There are some levels to watch like the 3125 resistance level, but the structure is supportive of a swing higher, though we are cautious at these levels and limiting our risk to no more than 3% total for swing trades.
Not as bullish on Stocks as we are with Bitcoin and Gold. Over the next few months we are looking for broader swings higher for both Bitcoin and Gold, but for stocks looking for a pullback to at least retest the 2700 area, but ideally looking for 2400-2600 to trade. This is where we want to be more aggressively buying.
Summary: Looking for longs this week as long as the market cooperates Monday after the open.
Bitcoin is setting up for another leg higher as it continues to consolidate in a typical pattern that favors a continuation of the prevailing trend. Just because we have a pattern does not imply it always plays out, but it does provide a piece of the puzzle as we do our analysis here.
We also want to look at levels where there are signs of supply and demand via order flow. Currently the two levels of interest are 9650 and 8600. A break of 9650 we are looking at 10,400 to trade quickly, and potentially a swing into the 11,300-11,900 area where there is a pretty decent supply zone.
On the bearish side a break of 8600 would likely bring 7800 into play and a potential swing into the 6600-7100 demand area. These types of consolidations generally equate to a strong breakout as breakout traders look to step in, once the move is confirmed.
In addition the structure leading up to this consolidation supports a continuation higher. In short looking for Bitcoin to break the range and move higher over the next week, though it may not be a clean swing. Often breakouts lead to throwbacks or pullbacks, so something to be aware of.
Gold:
Gold had a similar setup to Bitcoin, nice simple (ABCDE) type consolidation and then a strong breakout. Even though we did get a close above 1740 the market pulled back to retest the prevailing boundaries. This is very common and called a throwback.
Regardless this is still a bullish chart and though we are currently in a Gold Swing trade, we are interested in adding to our position on a continuation setup of minor lower high.
Two key order flow levels here are 1740 for bullish continuation and 1700 for a bearish setup and potential retest of the 1650 level. Our sights are on 1800 right now and above this level will be looking to trim out some more Gold inventory.
In the broader term very bullish on Gold and would not be surprised to see Gold at 2500 this time next year.
S&P
S&P was a little tricky for a few weeks as the market consolidated between the 2760 and 2945 levels. Not a triangle consolidation like Bitcoin or Gold, and not the cleanest consolidation box, but the structure is there.
Hindsight is always 2020, so we did close out some trades a couple weeks ago, when the lower high gave us some reason to pause in an area of major resistance. Yet the nice consolidation that happen this past week, provided us a comfort level that the market was wanting to break higher, so we added a couple stock trades and actually added to our portfolio a Biotech.
The key level here is 3040, which was a target / Resistance level, but we did close above 3040 and IF we take out the high of Friday's close we are looking for a potential swing to 3250.
There are some levels to watch like the 3125 resistance level, but the structure is supportive of a swing higher, though we are cautious at these levels and limiting our risk to no more than 3% total for swing trades.
Not as bullish on Stocks as we are with Bitcoin and Gold. Over the next few months we are looking for broader swings higher for both Bitcoin and Gold, but for stocks looking for a pullback to at least retest the 2700 area, but ideally looking for 2400-2600 to trade. This is where we want to be more aggressively buying.
Summary: Looking for longs this week as long as the market cooperates Monday after the open.
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