BTC/USD FRACTAL ANALYSIS 2017-09-27
Here is some work I did working out the fractal wave patterns on BTC/USD. The primary goal of this was to compare the June/July fractal patterns to the most recent pullback from 5k. Prior to this, I my preliminary analysis in which I believe there would be a pullback to the ~$2400 levels, but long term super bullish. While there is always the possibility that the price action we've seen the past 24 hours still leads to additional pullbacks, I think the chances are narrowing by the hour as presumably whales continue to help BTC get a leg up over its primary resistance levels.
I am by no means a very experienced analyst, and greatly appreciate any constructive criticism that anyone may be able to provide to help me learn from my mistakes. With that said - looking at the analysis, you can see that I did my best to work out each ABC fractal wave pattern I could work out - while respecting as best I could the bigger cycle wave patterns. In doing this, I found that a WXYXZ pattern actually better described the June/July pullback better than my previous intermediate ABC correction wave (thoughts on this?). With that frame in mind, I applied it to the most recent pullback and saw that it also matched (not sure if I am violating any key principles here or not). Furthermore, I tried applying double/triple combo waves on the way up from July bottom to 5k, but still found the 12345 impulse wave to best fit. I then applied this to the current pullback/recovery. According to this viewpoint, then we are indeed well on the way to recovery (versus half-way there in my prior analysis). I still think that a healthy pullback will be necessary sometime from now to 4,300. But applying this analysis to how we look at the trading then, we can have more confidence in buying the next dip, and not having too much concern that there will be an even lower dip.
Immediate near/short term:
I got in right at the most recent bottom, so I have been able to mostly sit back. Of course, after having done this analysis, I would have been more aggressive in my entry positions on the way back up to where we are now, but hindsight is 20/20. Looking forward, I am going to wait until I see the first sign of a legitimate support upon pullback. It could be a small one, or it could be a retracement on Leg C back down to ~$3800 (if this is right). Either way, if I feel that buyers are more than happy to snag more positions at the discounted price, then that is when I will resume placing aggressive positions. However, having learned the hard way - I will also do my best to resist the FOMO and sit out if I feel like we could be running out of steam, and my prior analysis "regains" control with respect to how I approach the plots (in which case, rather than an Impulse Wave, we're actually entering into the next WXYXZ pattern and $2400 pullback notion might come back to life). Based off prior support/resistance levels, I think we will manage to push through 4100, hit 4300, and retrace to 4000-4100. If we are having issues catching our breath now until 4200, I think a retracement back to 3800-3900 would be more than healthy and help revitalize the bulls to push on.
Long-term (3-6+ months out):
Super bull. I think cryptocurrency is still in its toddler years and still has plenty of room to grow before we're at risk for the dreaded bubble analogy or something of the sort.
I really appreciate any comments/advice/suggestions/criticism anyone can provide. Thank you!
I am by no means a very experienced analyst, and greatly appreciate any constructive criticism that anyone may be able to provide to help me learn from my mistakes. With that said - looking at the analysis, you can see that I did my best to work out each ABC fractal wave pattern I could work out - while respecting as best I could the bigger cycle wave patterns. In doing this, I found that a WXYXZ pattern actually better described the June/July pullback better than my previous intermediate ABC correction wave (thoughts on this?). With that frame in mind, I applied it to the most recent pullback and saw that it also matched (not sure if I am violating any key principles here or not). Furthermore, I tried applying double/triple combo waves on the way up from July bottom to 5k, but still found the 12345 impulse wave to best fit. I then applied this to the current pullback/recovery. According to this viewpoint, then we are indeed well on the way to recovery (versus half-way there in my prior analysis). I still think that a healthy pullback will be necessary sometime from now to 4,300. But applying this analysis to how we look at the trading then, we can have more confidence in buying the next dip, and not having too much concern that there will be an even lower dip.
Immediate near/short term:
I got in right at the most recent bottom, so I have been able to mostly sit back. Of course, after having done this analysis, I would have been more aggressive in my entry positions on the way back up to where we are now, but hindsight is 20/20. Looking forward, I am going to wait until I see the first sign of a legitimate support upon pullback. It could be a small one, or it could be a retracement on Leg C back down to ~$3800 (if this is right). Either way, if I feel that buyers are more than happy to snag more positions at the discounted price, then that is when I will resume placing aggressive positions. However, having learned the hard way - I will also do my best to resist the FOMO and sit out if I feel like we could be running out of steam, and my prior analysis "regains" control with respect to how I approach the plots (in which case, rather than an Impulse Wave, we're actually entering into the next WXYXZ pattern and $2400 pullback notion might come back to life). Based off prior support/resistance levels, I think we will manage to push through 4100, hit 4300, and retrace to 4000-4100. If we are having issues catching our breath now until 4200, I think a retracement back to 3800-3900 would be more than healthy and help revitalize the bulls to push on.
Long-term (3-6+ months out):
Super bull. I think cryptocurrency is still in its toddler years and still has plenty of room to grow before we're at risk for the dreaded bubble analogy or something of the sort.
I really appreciate any comments/advice/suggestions/criticism anyone can provide. Thank you!
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