We currently have a pending bullish butterfly in the current general area.
This can be a really good continuation pattern, when we have the basic trend conditions of there being a couple corrective legs, typically being around the same size and the final drop being the fastest (Scary false breakout).
In the successful version of this as a continuation pattern it will extend to the 2.20 of the full butterfly range. Doing the numbers in my head I'd guess that somewhere in the 135K sort of range.
...However, failure of the butterfly is a major warning of a reversal.
A reversal has a few main warnings. Decreasingly subtle.
1 - The breakout tends to fail at some technical level/pattern (happened).
2 - The local uptrend pattern breaks (happened).
3 - A larger two leg corrective pattern fails (testing).
The first couple are fine to miss. The market moves against you a bit but nothing disastrous.
Another benefit of being wrong during this bit is markets will range close to reversal levels for a long time (giving people time to make mistakes) there's some scope to work out you're wrong and correct your position during this time.
Upon the failure of the butterfly, if it comes, there's a notable change in the style of trend.
We call it "Crashing" when it happens to the downside (We call it "Organic growth" when it happens to the upside ... people are funny).
This can be a really good continuation pattern, when we have the basic trend conditions of there being a couple corrective legs, typically being around the same size and the final drop being the fastest (Scary false breakout).
In the successful version of this as a continuation pattern it will extend to the 2.20 of the full butterfly range. Doing the numbers in my head I'd guess that somewhere in the 135K sort of range.
...However, failure of the butterfly is a major warning of a reversal.
A reversal has a few main warnings. Decreasingly subtle.
1 - The breakout tends to fail at some technical level/pattern (happened).
2 - The local uptrend pattern breaks (happened).
3 - A larger two leg corrective pattern fails (testing).
The first couple are fine to miss. The market moves against you a bit but nothing disastrous.
Another benefit of being wrong during this bit is markets will range close to reversal levels for a long time (giving people time to make mistakes) there's some scope to work out you're wrong and correct your position during this time.
Upon the failure of the butterfly, if it comes, there's a notable change in the style of trend.
We call it "Crashing" when it happens to the downside (We call it "Organic growth" when it happens to the upside ... people are funny).
Trade active
Okay its time to try. Shorting now
Note
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.