BitcoinShort
|Danger|Don´t expect a stable 100k level
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe, exhibiting significant recent bullish momentum with some indications of a possible bearish retracement. Below is a detailed analysis:
1. Price Action and Channel Formation
Ascending Channel: The price is trading within an ascending channel, which often acts as a bullish pattern. However, it has recently touched the upper trendline and appears to be rejecting it, suggesting resistance at higher levels.
Bearish Reversal Signals: If the price breaks below the midline or lower boundary of the channel, this could confirm a bearish turn.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Current Level (65.71): The RSI indicates slightly overbought conditions but hasn't reached extreme levels (>70). A downward crossover of RSI below 50 could confirm increasing bearish momentum.
Watch for Divergence: Monitor for bearish divergence, where price forms higher highs while RSI forms lower highs, signaling weakening bullish strength.
3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Current Signal: The MACD histogram is decreasing, with the signal line likely converging with the MACD line. A bearish crossover here would indicate a potential shift in momentum.
Downtrend Momentum: If the histogram moves into the negative territory, it would strengthen bearish signals.
4. Volume Flow Indicator (VFI)
Current Status (3.92): Positive but flattening, which might indicate diminishing buying pressure. If the VFI turns negative, it could confirm selling dominance.
5. Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels:
$92,000: Near-term support, corresponding to recent consolidation zones.
$85,000: Critical support level. A break below could trigger further downside, potentially signaling the end of the bullish structure.
Resistance Levels:
$97,000: Strong resistance, as seen from rejection at the top of the channel.
6. Trading Idea: Bearish Case
Trigger for Bearish Move: Watch for:
A breakdown of the ascending channel below $92,000.
RSI dropping below 50.
A bearish MACD crossover.
Target Levels:
First target: $85,000, as a major psychological and technical level.
Secondary target: $75,000, aligning with prior consolidation zones and Fibonacci retracements.
Conclusion:
If the price breaks below $92,000 with confirming bearish signals from RSI, MACD, and volume indicators, it could validate a move toward $85,000. However, failure to break key support levels may suggest the bullish trend will continue.
1. Price Action and Channel Formation
Ascending Channel: The price is trading within an ascending channel, which often acts as a bullish pattern. However, it has recently touched the upper trendline and appears to be rejecting it, suggesting resistance at higher levels.
Bearish Reversal Signals: If the price breaks below the midline or lower boundary of the channel, this could confirm a bearish turn.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Current Level (65.71): The RSI indicates slightly overbought conditions but hasn't reached extreme levels (>70). A downward crossover of RSI below 50 could confirm increasing bearish momentum.
Watch for Divergence: Monitor for bearish divergence, where price forms higher highs while RSI forms lower highs, signaling weakening bullish strength.
3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Current Signal: The MACD histogram is decreasing, with the signal line likely converging with the MACD line. A bearish crossover here would indicate a potential shift in momentum.
Downtrend Momentum: If the histogram moves into the negative territory, it would strengthen bearish signals.
4. Volume Flow Indicator (VFI)
Current Status (3.92): Positive but flattening, which might indicate diminishing buying pressure. If the VFI turns negative, it could confirm selling dominance.
5. Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels:
$92,000: Near-term support, corresponding to recent consolidation zones.
$85,000: Critical support level. A break below could trigger further downside, potentially signaling the end of the bullish structure.
Resistance Levels:
$97,000: Strong resistance, as seen from rejection at the top of the channel.
6. Trading Idea: Bearish Case
Trigger for Bearish Move: Watch for:
A breakdown of the ascending channel below $92,000.
RSI dropping below 50.
A bearish MACD crossover.
Target Levels:
First target: $85,000, as a major psychological and technical level.
Secondary target: $75,000, aligning with prior consolidation zones and Fibonacci retracements.
Conclusion:
If the price breaks below $92,000 with confirming bearish signals from RSI, MACD, and volume indicators, it could validate a move toward $85,000. However, failure to break key support levels may suggest the bullish trend will continue.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.