By the first look, you might be thinking of the btc's chart to be forming the BLACK SCENARIO.
But in my opinion, what is gonna most probably happen would be the RED SCENARIO. which means btc could rise up to 39,000$ and afterwards, another drop will come to the scene down to 18,000$.
Yes. Definitely i might be wrong and my analysis would be invalid in case the price goes strongly up to 40,000$.