Bitcoin | A New Outfit

Updated

Crypto analysis is almost entirely based on models.

Models that work, until they don't.

1st Law of Trading: Models and "laws" like the power law, stop working when everybody agrees on them.

2nd Law of Trading: The 1st Law is a paradox.
3rd Law of Trading: There are no laws.
4th Law of Trading: This statement is false.

Aaaaand I broke AI.
(Portal 2 would suggest that, who knows if we could break ChatGPT with a simple paradox)

Shiny smartphones and large mirrors can make you look like a completely different person.
It is magic really... Computational Photography on your favorite pose/profile can make you a supermodel. And so, I decided to change up the mirror of Bitcoin to make better sense of it. It is like removing the beautification filter.

A simple analysis many could agree with.

Crypto is a child of Big Tech, much like "AI" is.

Crypto may be facing a grim future.

But AI has just began it's ventures.

We should however think twice.

And perhaps think thrice, just to make sure...

Is NVDA ridiculously overextended, or is it just starting killing Bitcoin?
Has NVDA found the secret sauce to take advantage of crypto dynamics?

I don't know the answer to the questions above.
(I have) no one to follow and nothing to teach.

Tread lightly for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori

Note

You may not like seeing Bitcoin upside-down. I do.

Bitcoin is, after all, nothing more than a currency.

NVDA has even managed to find actual support on Bitcoin

Bitcoin doesn't pay out dividends. It doesn't even pay out yield rates.
Bitcoin is a child of Big Tech. In the end, Bitcoin will serve its master, tech equities.

Who knows, maybe the next mania will be on equities.
A crypto ETF leveraged by institution investment will surely multiply their growth.
Bitcoin will just remain as a weapon in their investment arsenal.

Note

Go 2 years back. December of 2021.

Similar Bitcoin price, wildly different volume.

-- Does current volume confirm price action?

-- Does an incoming announcement of a Bitcoin ETF has anything to do with this?

Note

What did you buy in '09? And what did you buy now?

Note

Are Bitcoin Miner fees simply too expensive?

I remember attempting to trade three years ago in Bitcoin.
Miner fees were a significant portion when selling crypto for dollars.
Your experience may differ.

A possible breakout of this chart signals a MASSIVE selloff / liquidation in crypto.

Note

The following chart is a "relative price" indicator.
On top we have IXIC, on the bottom we have Bitcoin.

Give me a single reason why this chart isn't bullish.

Literally everything about this chart is bullish for Big-Tech and bearish for Bitcoin.

Note

All I want is a violation of the "power law" corridor of Bitcoin.
Stock Market has always violated what we thought possible. Remember GFC?

Note

If my simple Bitcoin model is correct, a theoretical maximum for Bitcoin for this cycle is 105k. Future cycles show significantly less returns.

If this model ends up approximately working, in the next decade Bitcoin may even have negative average returns. It could become an average-wasteful investment for some years. (or indefinitely?)

Note

If Bitcoin grows so fast, imagine how fast CBDC will grow.

akikostas

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