Bitcoin: Poised To Break 30K?
Bitcoin short squeeze continues to the 30K resistance. In terms of momentum this move is significant and should shape smaller time frame strategies, BUT the bigger picture is another story. New resistance is the 31K AREA, new support is 27.5 to 28.5 AREA.
Based on the new developments in price structure, I suspect a potential test of 31K BUT I believe a break is low probability. A test of the 28.5 to 27.5 support area is more likely in my opinion over the coming week.
The bullish move (sparked by fake news apparently) appears to be a short squeeze. These type of moves are NOT sustainable over the long run and is nothing more than traders getting shaken out of short positions.
Gold has also expressed a similar move almost touching 2K. We can sit here and entertain ourselves as to "why" this may be and why it should continue. We can also watch Youtube videos featuring rocket ships on their title thumbnails (how original!). The REALITY is interest rates are at their highs (see US10Y). As long as money is getting more expensive to borrow, the probability of Bitcoin going beyond 31K is LOW.
Sure this may also be money looking for safety, but it is most likely temporary. Sustainable rallies and asset bubbles are driven by cheap money, NOT temporary catalysts based on fear.
IF Bitcoin cannot clear 31K decisively over the next week, then I will be looking for the test of the newly established support 28.5 to 27.5K (see drawing on chart). I would consider shorting this to be aggressive since it is against price structure. Waiting for bullish setups around 28K would be conservative. Either way, day trades or swing trades are most appropriate at these levels, these are not attractive levels for investing.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Based on the new developments in price structure, I suspect a potential test of 31K BUT I believe a break is low probability. A test of the 28.5 to 27.5 support area is more likely in my opinion over the coming week.
The bullish move (sparked by fake news apparently) appears to be a short squeeze. These type of moves are NOT sustainable over the long run and is nothing more than traders getting shaken out of short positions.
Gold has also expressed a similar move almost touching 2K. We can sit here and entertain ourselves as to "why" this may be and why it should continue. We can also watch Youtube videos featuring rocket ships on their title thumbnails (how original!). The REALITY is interest rates are at their highs (see US10Y). As long as money is getting more expensive to borrow, the probability of Bitcoin going beyond 31K is LOW.
Sure this may also be money looking for safety, but it is most likely temporary. Sustainable rallies and asset bubbles are driven by cheap money, NOT temporary catalysts based on fear.
IF Bitcoin cannot clear 31K decisively over the next week, then I will be looking for the test of the newly established support 28.5 to 27.5K (see drawing on chart). I would consider shorting this to be aggressive since it is against price structure. Waiting for bullish setups around 28K would be conservative. Either way, day trades or swing trades are most appropriate at these levels, these are not attractive levels for investing.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
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