Bitcoin's coded "bubble" cycle? #Cryptonomics
Bitcoin roared out of the bear market (and the accumulation phase) going from 3K to 9K! It blew through the strong support turned strong resistance at $6,000 - $6500 (the pre-capitulation level) and set a 2019 high of $9096 showing the sidelined demand with fear of missing out. This strong movement correlates with Bitcoin's previous Cryptonomics cycle price action, especially moving from the accumulation phase into the expansion phase and back into the final phase before the bull market; the re-accumulation phase. Characteristic of the expansion phase, key MA's crossover, bullish signs are everywhere, and price performance confirms the accuracy of the indicators, BUT there is still time until the miners begin to price in the coming halving (50% reduction to miner rewards). Historically, miners begin to account for the coded adjustment 180 days (6 months) from the day of the halving. In free market, price is an expression of supply & demand. During the expansionary phase, DEMAND is the highest weighted variable and therefore has the strongest influence as the price driver. However, in the 180 day window miners will begin to raise the premium on their Bitcoin in order for Bitcoin to be valued at a spot price in 6 months that will remain profitable. [Currently it costs miners in the US about ~ $4500 to generate a Bitcoin. That means right now everyone is happy because we are selling freshly mined BTC at a nice premium, BUT on ~May 22, 2020 the miner reward will be algorithmically reduced by 50%, thus causing the cost to produce one Bitcoin in the US to double from ~$4500 to ~$9000. (Maybe thats why expansion phase topped at 9K?)] At this point (180 days-to-halving NOV 24 2019) SUPPLY becomes the highest weighted variable and therefore the key influencer of price. Demand can continue to increase and boost the effects of the supply shock. Bitcoin never breaks its previous cryptonomics cycle high (2nd Cycle High - 20K) before the halving. Historically, there is a "sell the news" selloff post-halving. This will be your last opportunity to buy discount coins before Bitcoin bounces and breaks it previous all-time high. Projected BTC peak of 3rd Cryptonomics cycle: $90,000 - $140,000 (Or 10x the halving day May 22,2020 value). Learn more and see more charts and stats in the Special Report: Cryptonomics
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.