Bitcoin | Huge SHS in the making, end of bullrun?
Updated
Bitcoin has shown nothing but weakness past days/weeks. What is worrying me the most is the fact, that whenever Bitcoin reaches ATH levels it gets pushed done immediately. Usually we see strong fomo buying when an ATH is cracked, maybe not the same day, but shortly after. This time Bitcoin seems to struggle hard to pierce through 70k, there is no volume whatsoever. Really starting to think this might be it. But never pick trendchanging tops they say, right?
Now, don't get me wrong, there is definitely a chance this might become a huge beartrap, but for this it needs to break below the neckline (after the right shoulder has formed), consolidate for a few days and then squeeze back up, ideally in a straight candle (no time for bears to cover their shorts). If it just touches the neckline around 42k and we see a right shoulder forming next weeks (so staying below 54-56k) and come back down to the neckline I'm 60% sure it will play out. So for me this is definitely a no-trade zone.
Of course, SHS is a VERY unreliable pattern (like every other pattern), I would say only 30-40% really play out, meaning reaching their targets which I have never seen with Bitcoin. Projected target would be around 11-12k I think, but still, long way to go. Until we haven't seen a right shoulder there is absolutely no reason to panic. To invalidate the SHS bulls must push it above 60k, maybe even 62k (the higher the better), if we don't see this I would be VERY cautious.
Usually I don't care about patterns. as I mentioned before they fail most of the time, BUT they can and especially when it comes to SHS patterns, the drop is typically pretty violent and strong. Anything else leaves room for a beartrap (as I said).
Stay safe.
Now, don't get me wrong, there is definitely a chance this might become a huge beartrap, but for this it needs to break below the neckline (after the right shoulder has formed), consolidate for a few days and then squeeze back up, ideally in a straight candle (no time for bears to cover their shorts). If it just touches the neckline around 42k and we see a right shoulder forming next weeks (so staying below 54-56k) and come back down to the neckline I'm 60% sure it will play out. So for me this is definitely a no-trade zone.
Of course, SHS is a VERY unreliable pattern (like every other pattern), I would say only 30-40% really play out, meaning reaching their targets which I have never seen with Bitcoin. Projected target would be around 11-12k I think, but still, long way to go. Until we haven't seen a right shoulder there is absolutely no reason to panic. To invalidate the SHS bulls must push it above 60k, maybe even 62k (the higher the better), if we don't see this I would be VERY cautious.
Usually I don't care about patterns. as I mentioned before they fail most of the time, BUT they can and especially when it comes to SHS patterns, the drop is typically pretty violent and strong. Anything else leaves room for a beartrap (as I said).
Stay safe.
Note
Neckline is around 39-40k not 42k.Note
We could see one of these scenarios happen next days/weeks. There is actually a third scenario which would be the most bullish, but market still feels heavy so I would definitely not bet on it - But if bulls can hold the trendline and we bounce to 52k chances are it might break. Then I think the SHS scenario becomes less likely.If we drop below the trendline next week and touch the neckline it depends on the strength of the countermove which is likely to happen at this point. Anything below 52k means danger, maybe even up to 56k.
Note
Note
Looks like bulls are fighting back. Think if it stays below 48k for a few hours we could see an attempt towards 52k. Note
Hm. Looks very similar. Even the levels are almost identical.Note
Just a guess, but this could become a wedge in the next days, 47k would be my key level. 
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