BTC 4h ranging | 6380 res. | 6250 sup. | Brutal monthly

Updated

Topics spoken about:
15m ascending triangle, broke down
15m hammer yet still can’t get to 6385 wick high and using that bottom range as resistance
1h chart 6380s past support now resistance
Daily barely covers the previous move to the downside
Volume weak on daily
Daily fibs show 6600 still as resistance
Monthly chart looks absolutely brutal. Must close above 6385

Note

BTC monthly chart tells me an interesting story: The story of 3's

After the ~20k high in December we followed it in January with a massive bearish candle with a high for 17.2k to a candle closing at 10.1k even though the low of that month went to $9100. Still this candle closed higher than December's opening. This January candle starts our sequence of candle 1 of 3. Candle 2 of February closed higher than candle 1 of January. Candle 3 of March, however, closed massively bearish at $6928. Following that we started a new count of the 3s sequence. Candle 1 of April was a nice bullish candle closing well above the March closing. Candle 2 of May closed lower than April yet higher than March's candle 3. Now following the second Candle 3 of June, it closed at $6384, lower than all the preceding candles since December. This created a lower low of Candle 3 in June from Candle 3 in March. Now we're on our third sequence of three's. Candle 1 of July clearly closed higher and yet again candle 2 of August closed lower than July. We're now in the middle of September and seeing if this story of 3s will continue. Will we close lower than the preceding 3s candles from March and June? If so, this will further validate our macro bear market.

I lean bearish .

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ETH looks scary too

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$6250 testing again

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After a clean shakeout in the market we are now back in the lower half of the range trading between $6384 and $6466.

Note

Yesterday's shakeout touched both the bottom support ($6120) and quite close to the top resistance ($6570). All in one 30m candle. For those of you who are wondering if this is manipulation. No. It is not. This is a big player in the market that understands how to push it around and utilize the movements and liquidity generated to fill up his own pockets. Let me explain.

When we were hovering between $6250 and $6384, this person knew may have had some short positions open that he wanted to close. And he possibly had some longs/spot buys that he wanted to fill. So how do you engineer this? If you're a big player with a tens of millions of dollars of BTC, you already know that the market is weak and does not have enough bulls to absorb the bears supply. So you have small buy walls holding the price up around the $6250-6384 area absorbing the supply from retail sellers. You also have a ton of BTC that you can market sell to reach your short targets. So first you pull your buy wall, market sell a significant amount of Bitcoin. This makes the market dump, causes fear, hits some stop-losses of others, further dumps the market and accelerates the drop. You close your short position. You have a long position waiting at critical support, say $6120 because you may not have enough money to break through that support. This fills up your big position of long/spot buy. Volume spikes, price spikes, novice retail investors short at critical support because they don't know any better, they get stopped out and then have to jump back into BTC spot/longs to cover their short positions. This further accelerates the run up on price. Big bull whale just became a proud owner of at least 1000+ BTC with the price shooting from $6120 to $6400 in less than 30 mins. This is how you engineer liquidity and win on both ends of the market.

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