Preparing For The Next Move - Why Bitcoin May Not Go Lower
Updated
In May, I posted an analysis of the total crypto market cap, saying that we could head up towards the long term ascending channel resistance (pink) and then retrace towards the bottom trendline support. This is exactly what has happened. Take a look. 
As you can see in the updated chart above, the TOTAL crypto market cap has just bounced off its long term trendline. I'm going to give the market the benefit of the doubt and assume (for now) that it will hold. And if it doesn't, we have clear horizontal support targets (given in red). This post is simply about preparing for the next macro swing. There are reasons to believe that cryptocurrencies may have to slow down their growth, particularly if Bitcoin breaks down here. I think market participants should prepare for this scenario as well. However, we've seen evidence that logarithmic trends can hold for many years, particularly in the stock market. So perhaps crypto has some hidden gas in the tank.
The reason why Bitcoin is finding support here is NOT because of moving averages. This is why I haven't used moving averages much in my analysis until recently. Bitcoin is finding support here because if it breaks down any lower, it would pull the market into uncharted bearish territory. Bulls will do whatever they can to prevent this from happening. Sentiment is extremely low right now, which is why I'm speculating that we may actually be here (circled) in our current cycle:
I've also circled potential RSI fractals in that chart. This could mean that we are still only in the very early stages of a bull market. If this is the case, then this one may end up being similar in magnitude, but could take longer to play out. This would make sense, given that more money will be needed to push valuations higher. This would mean that the people selling now are actually still selling the bottom.
We are at a very important juncture. Most seem to believe we're headed lower. This analysis is just to show why (in hindsight) this could have easily been the end of this wave down, and the beginning of a new wave towards the important 500B area. I think the next larger market swing (if we go up) should take us close to that zone. As for Bitcoin, I think it can first test the descending triangle resistance (around 9.3K currently). That would be the target for the first move. Next, it can target the broken log trend (light blue), and if it gets back into that channel, we could see close to all-time-high prices within the next year. On the bearish side, if we cannot hold $7800, I think a move straight down to the 50w MA (near $6800) is very possible. Then we'd probably be in uncharted territory for alts (unless they gain massively on their ratios during that time).
Things are aligning pretty well for the early stage bull market scenario. Alts have arguably not moved much at all (except a select few), just as they lagged behind in 2016 before they finally started outperforming Bitcoin in Phase 2 of the cycle. This is part of the reason why I expected many alts to start outperforming Bitcoin on longer timeframes starting from when I made these posts:
This is not financial advice. Just wanted to post an update about where I think the market could be headed. This is purely my opinion, and should be used for entertainment and educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
As you can see in the updated chart above, the TOTAL crypto market cap has just bounced off its long term trendline. I'm going to give the market the benefit of the doubt and assume (for now) that it will hold. And if it doesn't, we have clear horizontal support targets (given in red). This post is simply about preparing for the next macro swing. There are reasons to believe that cryptocurrencies may have to slow down their growth, particularly if Bitcoin breaks down here. I think market participants should prepare for this scenario as well. However, we've seen evidence that logarithmic trends can hold for many years, particularly in the stock market. So perhaps crypto has some hidden gas in the tank.
The reason why Bitcoin is finding support here is NOT because of moving averages. This is why I haven't used moving averages much in my analysis until recently. Bitcoin is finding support here because if it breaks down any lower, it would pull the market into uncharted bearish territory. Bulls will do whatever they can to prevent this from happening. Sentiment is extremely low right now, which is why I'm speculating that we may actually be here (circled) in our current cycle:
I've also circled potential RSI fractals in that chart. This could mean that we are still only in the very early stages of a bull market. If this is the case, then this one may end up being similar in magnitude, but could take longer to play out. This would make sense, given that more money will be needed to push valuations higher. This would mean that the people selling now are actually still selling the bottom.
We are at a very important juncture. Most seem to believe we're headed lower. This analysis is just to show why (in hindsight) this could have easily been the end of this wave down, and the beginning of a new wave towards the important 500B area. I think the next larger market swing (if we go up) should take us close to that zone. As for Bitcoin, I think it can first test the descending triangle resistance (around 9.3K currently). That would be the target for the first move. Next, it can target the broken log trend (light blue), and if it gets back into that channel, we could see close to all-time-high prices within the next year. On the bearish side, if we cannot hold $7800, I think a move straight down to the 50w MA (near $6800) is very possible. Then we'd probably be in uncharted territory for alts (unless they gain massively on their ratios during that time).
Things are aligning pretty well for the early stage bull market scenario. Alts have arguably not moved much at all (except a select few), just as they lagged behind in 2016 before they finally started outperforming Bitcoin in Phase 2 of the cycle. This is part of the reason why I expected many alts to start outperforming Bitcoin on longer timeframes starting from when I made these posts:
This is not financial advice. Just wanted to post an update about where I think the market could be headed. This is purely my opinion, and should be used for entertainment and educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
The market is trying to break down here and violate the long term trend. If we head down towards 180B and the bottom of the channel (bearish target), that would mean the slow growth scenario I've been talking about is likely. Note
Zoomed out you can see that if we're going to begin a new wave up soon, we should bounce now and slowly head towards a new high by early next year. Note
Really down to the wire https://here...https://www.tradingview.com/x/j8lzpQ7o/Note
Here's an alternate diagonal resistance (instead of the downtrend channel). This would mean we're closer to a potential large breakout in either direction. Bears are still failing to close the daily candle below the long term trendline, although they are certainly making an attempt. Note
Well, that's that. Bears have successfully broken us down below the long term trendline for the whole market. A move back up above the trend would be incredibly bullish, but it seems more likely that growth will slow down, as I've speculated about recently. Note
This idea is clearly invalidated, as BItcoin has moved to the next horizontal support level. We are now also below the 100w MA, and the next MA support is at the 50w MA, in the high 6700 area currently. Note
Wow. Even though things seemed grim, the volume just wasn’t there for bearish continuation. Instead, we’re now back above the long term trendline. The original idea from this post is back in play now, as long as bulls can hold above the 7.9K level. This seems feasible, considering the strength of this bounce. My original assumption with this post might have been correct after all. Let’s see though. I’d also like to see alts not move much lower on their ratios and finally break some of these pesky ranges. Maybe growth won’t slow down after all.Note
Bitcoin is now back in the bearish channel (as I described shouldn't happen in this video, for the bullish scenario). Things are still looking better for bulls than they were last week, but we should be very careful here. TOTAL is also in the bearish channel again
TOTAL2 looks much more indecisive, with powerful wicks on either side. What we want to see is these candles remain neutral (bulls will need to hold current levels) OR we'll need to break and hold above the bearish channels before weekly close.
Note
The video I mention in this update refers to the most recent video on my page.Note
I did actually forecast a move somewhat like this, even in my slow growth scenario. In both blue and yellow, I expected a powerful bart up like what we saw yesterday. You can see that by the way I drew it. Now, whether or not something like either of these scenarios will play out....that remains to be seen 
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