Short

Big triangle for Bitcoin, 3000 to 5000 move, direction this week

Updated

Lets evaluate the last few days, as it was become clear the last 2 days (after the failed breakout of 11.400, i mentioned the market would probably go sideways, because it is by far the most easiest way for whales to earn money. The influence of the CME futures expiration is probably the cause of this. I have no numbers or real information about how big the volume is of the CME futures, but before i even knew it would be this friday, i did not think it would be of any real influence. That's why i did not even take the time to be up to date. Now it's almost sure it is of influence. The false breakouts down and up have those characteristics. Ofourse it could all still be a coincidence, but for now i am assuming it has this effect.
For the ones who have no experience with the real markets, who have not seen enough in their lives of how stock markets (sometimes) work, don't know that the underliying value (like the Bitcoin) gets used as a toy to earn money with derivatives like the futures. Ofcourse when fundamentals/sentiment and big buying and selling volume have the upper hand, than it is much more difficult to control the outcome.
For now we are moving in a clear (bigger) triangle,from the 14.300 top to the 9.200 bottom. The room that's left is 10.400 on the downside and 11.400 on the upside. Normally it's best to stay untill it breaks one of the 2. For me it's almost it's like 70% sure that the first outbreak (up or down) will be a false outbreak, after that it will probably choose the other direction in which the chosen trend will than continue! This triangle has clear characteristics of a real triangle and it confirmes actual sentiment, people who the the bottom is set at 10K and the many who think it will drop to 8K or even much lower.

Smaller time frame patterns within this pattern, cannot be really used to determine which side the outbreak will be, we have seen this clearly at the 2 failed attempts on the upside at 11.700 and the day after at 11.600. Almost all short term signals were green, nonetheless it went down again as you can read in my previous updates, where i predicted it would be a second false outbreak!

My guess is, within the coming week the direction will be chosen and will determine the trend for the coming months. My view is to the downside, but i am very sceptical about the crypto market as whole, so i know i am not 100% objective. I know this of my self and therefore (like i always mention) i can change easily when i get new signals. My thought is, there is just to much uncertainty in the minds of people lately, ofcourse because of the big drops from the 20K top and the 17K top, but also from al the news and facts lately. This could have the upper hand for at least the short term (weeks/months). So a shake out to the downside is a very realistic option for now.

Note

The false outbreak of this triangle from the 10.300/11.200 levels, is a very weak sign! It bounced of the bigger triangle resistance which i mentioned in the previous update, now it's making a bearish flag, so most signals are to the downside for now!

Note

This COULD be the false outbreak on the upside,50/50 chance, better to wait for confirmation!

Note

I am shorting it, with a stop at 11800 (small position) build it up probably when it drops below 11.200

Note

Changing plan, short stop at 11620, for a 120 point loss, because its making a flag now!

Note

Stop at 11540, for a 30 point loss, risky trade, so when you get the chance, minimize the eventual loss

Note

I have closed half with 100 points profit, low selling volume (overal low volume, so manipulation is to easy now)

Note

11.400 is a small support, (level was a resistance several times a few days ago, broke it twice and fell under it again (the moves i talked about, the pruple circled ones. If it breaks, chances increase allot that all this is a false move AGAIN. Objective view, it is still make a bullish flag with low sell volume, AND it broke (however still minimal) the big triangle you see in the original chart. But you can only speal of a real outbreak if it gets above the 11.700 and even better above the 12.000.

Note

I see the same as the 11750 and the 11.700 top few days ago (no guarantee it will drop again ofcourse). That earlier trade got closed now, small profit still. Everything above 11.400 is a signal of strenght now!

Note

If my theory about spoofy (whales) is right, part of this upwards buying move (buying by real buyers ofcourse and part wash trading OFCOURSE) it opened the short positions of spoofy. So the top is probably set, and we should be seeing some increase of selling volume now, otherwise my theory is probably wrong and i am just 'wishfull thinking' LOL :)

Note

But don't expect a immediate sell of or something, 'they' will need to keep enough selling power, to push if down when needed, AND maybe they dont have all the short positions in yet, will try to get them in at these levels. Maybe some of you think i am crazy :), but trust me, at some level i am not seeing things i want to see! anyway, I have shorted it again

Note

Like i said, moving sideways (distribution fase) 11.400 still clear support.

Note

Looks like it's gonna make another wave up

Note

I am out, minimizing the loss, wait for another chance

Note

I am jumping back in, small position short stop! It's moving sideways with low volume, so it's tricky!

Note

I am almost getting out, to much sideways, chances increase it's holding and going up. I will quite for the day if it stops me out. Will probably only get back if it breaks out the 12K or below the 10.500

Note

It broke out and is testing the former resistance as a support now. The breakout volume was there, but there is just absolutely no follow through! Volume has also dropped, difficult to say what is happening now, but it is staying way to long below the 11.700. People are not convinced about the break out and there is no conviction of much higher prices. The longer it stays below the 11.800 the bigger the chances become of it dropping again! I have added at 11710, overal stop at 11.850.
Different exchanges were all at the same prices lately, but the especially today the difference keeps getting bigger. Do have to say, few weeks ago when it was dropping, Bitfinex was pulling them down by being around 400/500 points lower. Now it's almost 300 points higher, so logic would say, we go up!
I had it right the past few days about not breaking out, i am trusting my instinct again, risk reward is very good, otherwise i would not do it!

Note

tradingview.com/x/zPxkxeeI/11.400 is the important level to watch (for bitfinex)
So far Bitfinex is leading again, Coinbase is falling 500 points behind. I am staying at the side lines. Maybe will go long if it goes towards the 11.400 again or go short when it drops below. For now, sidelines i am completely flat now. Taking a break :) Good luck all

Note

I still think it will drop again, but i am flat! Just to be clear. Not trading it for now

Note

13K is the real resistance, below that level still dowtrend. But the outbreak is the first big step!!

Note

This market is for 99% build on sentiment, expectation and believe. There is no real fundamental basis yet. Therefore (the way see it) if trust gets damaged even a little bit, it becomes much more difficult for the market to recover from this.

I am saying for a while now, Bitcoin will never see a new ATH again. Unless some real fundamental change comes in play that could give people trust and push everything up again. Inexperienced people have seen to many big drops lately, lost to much money, to just keep on buying and paying higher prices for something that has a lot of risk. Up to the big crash from the 20K, It almost didn't matter at wich point one would get in the market, because everytime it would make a new ATH.

So i dont think this market will see those fast big bull runs anymore (unless something big happens). The conviction we saw up untill a month ago is just gone! Ofcourse there are still many bulls, but even these bulls just can't be as convinced as they used to be. This break out of the 11.500, of this triangle is just really disappointing! For normal markets it's completely normal that it is testing it's former resistance levels as support now. But it's not normal for Bitcoin. That means something has changed. People are getting less blind, are buying less impulsive. So even if another attempt will be made to take out the ATH, it will take much more time than before. I dont mean months, but it's impossible it will be done in a few days or a week.

Short term, difficult to say. I am still flat, even though i really want to short it. But i always take a small brake after a few bad trades. Even though i made a massive profit the last few weeks, this is a very emotional market. Taking a break is necessary sometimes, to be able to view the markets objectively. Pure TA says it broke out short term, higher lows (most important factor) broke out the big triangle and so on. But longer term it's still in a downtrend and fundamentally it's things have changed. Just to many mixed signals! But this is very common for sideways action, to get confused. And whales usually try to do this, because they dont want traders getting long or short for the best prices. They just want them to get in at the tops and shake them out with big fast drops, but the same happens the other way around ofcourse!

Note

Posted a new chart

botje11

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.