Similarities between Bitcoin's rising channels (950% gains?!?!?)
Updated
This idea is not fancy. It is simple textbook chart formations such as flagpole targets and rising channels. Many people's first indicators that they learn are the MACD and the RSI. Next comes the use of divergences with the indicators and oscillators. This chart is basic enough to be in the introductory section of a trading textbook.
While it is undeniable that we have higher highs and higher lows the chart below shows that that compared to last time the higher high was not as high, comparing almost 20% in the 2020 higher high to only 6.3% in the 2021 higher high. What is nice for the bulls is that the higher low we have put in so far in 2022 is 18.8% higher then the comparison low in the channel while in 2020 it was only 11.25ish%. So the high is not relatively higher but the low is relatively lower.
Hopefully some wonk in the comments can tell us which performs better, is it better to have higher highs, or is it better to have higher lows?
Regardless, the targeting and stop loss/trade management is pretty simple. For full performance just see the chart below. It does not get much easier than that. My linked idea about the XABCD butterfly will show a higher up target but that may take a while to reach. We already had a year of sideways and if we hit target with over a 9x who wants to be greedy and hold open a position for perhaps another year?
The black flagpole target helped define a significant area for over a year and a half. I assume that if the $440,000 gets met that will likewise be a significant area for a long time. I, however, won't be in the game as I like my XABCD butterfly target of 375k much better.
I, also personally, am not going to be doing a whole lot with btc as a trade, but I will be using it to determine where I think the market may stall and reverse. I have my positions and trades on in my preferred alts.
While it is undeniable that we have higher highs and higher lows the chart below shows that that compared to last time the higher high was not as high, comparing almost 20% in the 2020 higher high to only 6.3% in the 2021 higher high. What is nice for the bulls is that the higher low we have put in so far in 2022 is 18.8% higher then the comparison low in the channel while in 2020 it was only 11.25ish%. So the high is not relatively higher but the low is relatively lower.
Hopefully some wonk in the comments can tell us which performs better, is it better to have higher highs, or is it better to have higher lows?
Regardless, the targeting and stop loss/trade management is pretty simple. For full performance just see the chart below. It does not get much easier than that. My linked idea about the XABCD butterfly will show a higher up target but that may take a while to reach. We already had a year of sideways and if we hit target with over a 9x who wants to be greedy and hold open a position for perhaps another year?
The black flagpole target helped define a significant area for over a year and a half. I assume that if the $440,000 gets met that will likewise be a significant area for a long time. I, however, won't be in the game as I like my XABCD butterfly target of 375k much better.
I, also personally, am not going to be doing a whole lot with btc as a trade, but I will be using it to determine where I think the market may stall and reverse. I have my positions and trades on in my preferred alts.
Note
I see a potential ascending triangle based on the horizontal blue level at about 45k. Now many times an ascending triangle will have a double bottom fractal in one of the lows so it is still very possible that price tests lower but I remain optimistic that we will get above 45.6k in the next several weeks and even successfully retest that level as support. So long as we are making higher lows the fundamentals of trading say I stay bullish.Note
Here is midweek look at the weekly chart and we can see on the ascending triangle draw that price action is beginning to come up nicely.The red zone comes from the linked idea below on If (IF) If bitcoin can clear its moving averages. Once we break that zone it is a very high probability in my assessment that BTCUSD hits a new all time high.
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