2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bitcoin did most of it’s drop in the Asia session and finally touched the bull trend line beginning 2023-10. It’s the do or die moment for bulls here. I do not expect this trend line to be broken on the first touch but if bulls fail, it will become a quick flush down to at least 52000 to close the bull gap. Since the drop from 72753 is now greater than 20%, we are officially in a bear market. I would then count this move from 72000 to here as the first leg of this bear trend, where a measured move would bring us right to 40000, which is the target I have been writing about for more than 4 months.
current market cycle: trading range until clear break below 56000. Smaller bear trend did indeed accelerate and bulls are fighting for 56000 and the trading range.
key levels: 56000 - 63000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls desperately need to keep it above 56000 or 52000 will come very fast. This is the last stand here or we will see much lower prices much faster. We are now inside the triangle from the big bull and big bear trend line and I expect bulls to be able to hold it inside this triangle for the next 2-4 days at least. Honestly not having more for the bulls here.
Invalidation is below 56000.
bear case: Bears just selling this relentlessly now with huge spikes. Today we got another 3% move in 1h in the Asia session. Market found a decent amount of buyers at the big bull trend line and I don’t expect bears to fight this until we saw some decent bounce and sideways movement inside the triangle. Bears kinda losing the 1h 20ema momentum currently, which would give the bulls some more arguments to get back to 60000 but bears would need to keep it below that price or risk bull momentum to 62000. For now the 2 green two legged corrections are my best guess on how the bounce could play out.
Invalidation is above 62000.
short term: Expecting a bounce here but full bear mode once it fails.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Could expect follow through after the 2000 point bear bar. So once the bounce failed, shorts were in order but you had to get out once the 1h bars formed big tails below right at the bull trend line.
If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow.
Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
comment: Bitcoin did most of it’s drop in the Asia session and finally touched the bull trend line beginning 2023-10. It’s the do or die moment for bulls here. I do not expect this trend line to be broken on the first touch but if bulls fail, it will become a quick flush down to at least 52000 to close the bull gap. Since the drop from 72753 is now greater than 20%, we are officially in a bear market. I would then count this move from 72000 to here as the first leg of this bear trend, where a measured move would bring us right to 40000, which is the target I have been writing about for more than 4 months.
current market cycle: trading range until clear break below 56000. Smaller bear trend did indeed accelerate and bulls are fighting for 56000 and the trading range.
key levels: 56000 - 63000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls desperately need to keep it above 56000 or 52000 will come very fast. This is the last stand here or we will see much lower prices much faster. We are now inside the triangle from the big bull and big bear trend line and I expect bulls to be able to hold it inside this triangle for the next 2-4 days at least. Honestly not having more for the bulls here.
Invalidation is below 56000.
bear case: Bears just selling this relentlessly now with huge spikes. Today we got another 3% move in 1h in the Asia session. Market found a decent amount of buyers at the big bull trend line and I don’t expect bears to fight this until we saw some decent bounce and sideways movement inside the triangle. Bears kinda losing the 1h 20ema momentum currently, which would give the bulls some more arguments to get back to 60000 but bears would need to keep it below that price or risk bull momentum to 62000. For now the 2 green two legged corrections are my best guess on how the bounce could play out.
Invalidation is above 62000.
short term: Expecting a bounce here but full bear mode once it fails.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Could expect follow through after the 2000 point bear bar. So once the bounce failed, shorts were in order but you had to get out once the 1h bars formed big tails below right at the bull trend line.
If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow.
Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
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