Updated

Post Halving: BTC Loves Sep and OCT

BTC is currently sitting just below 61K and is not ready for the next leg up. We have been stuck in consolidation since the recent ~73K high back in March 2024 and the logarithmic weekly charts shows that BTC has been trending in this rising channel since November 2022. Judging from the previous trends seen in the past two halving events (see below) we are likely to see a massive liquidity sell off prior to the next explosive move to new all-time highs.

We can very much continue consolidating within the current ~60k – 70k range but I think we need this sell off to happen in order to go higher. Big players like banks and institutions place massive orders and trade massive positions that drive price higher. Nothing fundamentally has changed and BTC is likely to see a new all-time high, but in order for that to happen, the big players require liquidity. I think we are due for one more sell off prior to new highs and the charts point towards a likely liquidity grab at around ~52K.

At that level I expect confluence from the 50 EMA to catch up to price and for 52k support to be retested along with trend line confluence from the rising channel.

This will place us roughly around Sep/Oct and BTC loves Sep and Oct.

Best of Luck!

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Zooming into the daily chart at around the previous halving event, BTC was trending in a rising channel since May 2020. Price ranged from July to early September and had a massive ~17% sell off prior to the next leg up.

Current price with a 17% sell off would roughly take us to 52K

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Zooming into the daily chart at around the 2016 halving event, BTC also had a massive ~27% sell off in late July / early August before kicking of the next leg up to new all-time highs

Current price with a 17% sell off would roughly take us to 44K

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lots of blood in the water, this is planning out as expected so far but lets see how we close the week

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weve just broken past this local low in the range and as it stands 52k is looking very conservative.

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1st downside target has been hit, macro looks awful so lets wee if we can hold this area

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geopolitical environment may grant us another buying opportunity. im hoping we get it 🔥

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key area here

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good break here

BTC has once again approached a key level for breakout

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things are getting real exciting now

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alr so lots of volatility and sentiment change going around the crypto space. it's very easy for some traders to go off an absolute line of resistance and call a dump to zero like so

but i don't go off absolute lines and have built my style off trading multiple touch points

i think we are holding off fairly well and many questions will be answered post US election

we have retested this zone perfectly and once we break that line of resistance i think a retest of the ATH is undeniable.

patience pays.

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that's VALIDATING !

next up ATH

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beautiful and extremely validating!

this flag we called has now played out

i expect a small retracement from BTC before we blast off. again, some traders on here will call the top and predict well go to zero but the market cycles just don't show that.

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i expect us to hold here and create a higher high

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holding up here for now

i expect the upwards trend to continue and still remain short term bullish. if we can't hold here with all the volatility this week id expect us to retest that trendline

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beautiful weve been calling it here! New ATH and BTC is looking good ! i expect us to test that ath level and bounce up

i think at this point the sentiment is finally shifting; this is not a bull trap and we are not going to zero , BTC will continue making new ATHs and FOMO will hit the markets real fast

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the ATHs keep coming 79K !🔥🔥

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93k !? That momentum is insane. I think a lot believed we would come down and retest 78k, i def thought we were losing steam but BTCs strength is unparallel.

lets see how much more fire this momentum has, 100k can come alot sooner than expected 👀

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just shy off triple digits. considered taking profits at 99k and rolling into altcoins but was too slow to generate the plan and decide ugghh. BTC is correcting but i think we will break 100k by end of year

Key area here, RSI needs to curl to continue bullish, if we break this level, we can fall a lot further

we can fall as much to 76,770 and still be in this uptrend

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i think we can break 100k next week, we are hanging on here at ~97K very well

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100kk day !

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looks like a false breakout. BTC is correcting and might see 90k again

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WOW, that got me, the king is too strong, i think we'll see a 120K BTC real soon ! Lets see what news Wednesday hold with the rate cuts

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what a brutal drop. was not expecting the market to react like this on rate cuts. We have retested the POC and are just hanging on 100k. This is surprising but i don't think the top has been set. I think BTC still has a lot going for it going in 2025. We main see more downside but i think December can still close out green for the equities and crypto markets

what does concern me is the dollar strength

and 10 year note have exploded

this overall tells me that investors are not as risk on as us crypto investors would like them to be. we will have to monitor these fo the rest of december

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Despite the recent negative sentiment, BTC has managed to hold above 90K. We have established support right around 91K and have bounced off the 50 EMA on the daily. A break from 99K will send us back to 106K

The Dollar remains strong

and so does the 10-year note

We aren't in the clear yet and should still trade with caution, but I remain bullish on BTC for 2025 and think we can continue seeing new ATH's

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BTC was not able to hold, expect us to retest and hold ~91K, itis currently following the equity markets very closely and both the dollar and 10-year note remain really strong

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BTC holding above 90K lots of fear going around, i remain bullish that we can hold 90K

10 year note remains strong and has gap filled now

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that's a breakout in my books!

10 year note falling after the gap fill

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that was a strong flush out, i don't think we will be falling much further expecting us to bounce from here soon

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sentiment has reset and we are flat for the most part. I still hold the optimist view that the cycle is not quiet over and this we can close above our current ceiling for a new ATH

200 EMA creeping up on us on the daily

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lets see if we can hold the 200 EMA, would not be surprised if we climb up to retest previous support

we have not fully closed the CME gap around 77K yet

so it will be interesting to se how things play out. For now i lean short term bearish

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strategic BTC reserve news today, what a news!

Lets see if we can hold support and this turns into a bear trap

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CME gap was filled and we just hugging above that trendline. Overall market sentiment leans pessimistic and so i lean bearish in the short term

support appears to have turned into resistance so id stay cautious for now

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CME gap has been filled, and we are now retesting that 2024 high. Despite the bloodbath and investor pessimism, I still remain bullish for 2025 and view the current technicals as a textbook previous resistance now turned support. If we can hold this line around 74K for a couple weeks, then I think we can see an inevitable bounce to the upside.

Merely speculation here, but if BTC does manage to hold, I would expect some sort of "good news" momentum in the near future to help catalyze a sharp run up back to previous highs

failure to hold here would make me accept an overall cycle end.

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great hold here. Still a great area to enter long but keep in mind we can very much continue to range and still be bullish

with the tariffs pause, markets are seeing continued relief, let see if we can continue this short-term rally and retest that previous line of support

LaMASIA_100

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