BitcoinLong
BTC update: 25k held. HODL.
For better clarity, please refer to my prev. idea from 01 sept 2023. This is a 1-month-later update. We held 25k, I didn't go into much detail as to why it was a must hold zone - nobody cares yet. Once I build a history of high quality ideas here (or fail miserably!), I'll be more inclined to reply and/or provide more insights.
TLDR for the Tik-Tokers:
SEPTEMBER GREEN, OCTOBER GREEN = ME BUY 01 NOVEMBER A LOT
SEPTEMBER GREEN, OCTOBER RED = ME NO NO BUY IN NOVEMBER
So, this was a very conservative and blatantly obvious entry at 25k - 26k with the following in mind:
(1) clear SL: 25k is a must hold level, 100% uncertain what's happening below
(2) clear short term target which is 30k - 33k, which is dead and fake - see below
(3) clear TP: real temporary exit zone which is nearing liquid ATH (not 69k, below)
(4) clear long-term horizon: I'm adding a significant (for me!) part of my portolio into BTC after exiting in the range of 28,300 - 31,500 when I realised buying liquidity is dead and my hopes of breaking 30 - 33k zone were dead.
The fk is LIQUID ATH
I define LIQUID ALL TIME HIGH (ATH) as a zone where a giant amount of liquidity may have had an opportunity to buy or sell at insanely high prices. While the nominal ATH is 69,420, this spot is illiquid in terms of (1) volume and (2) time. Could I buy or sell 1 BTC at 69,420? Maybe. 1000 BTC? Very unlikely. How much time did I have to fill this trade? A couple of days best? Real liquidity enters positions for MONTHS. So the real liquid BTC all time high is 50k - 60k zone. Whoever claims they sold at 69k are liars. Whoever bought at 60k - 69k is a mass-media brainwashed sheep and an exit liqidity for the Coinbase IPO sellouts.
Why is 30k - 33k resistance dead and fake?
Because. Orders were moved lower and lower, and buying liquidity temporarily lost. Binance FUD. Somehow we held 25k - no idea why. I was worried we'd go lower. Now that everyone sold all the way down from 31k to 25k, there's no one to sell at 30 - 33k. Only up.
Did you not enter at 25k - 26k because you're an inconfident loser?
Fear not, I've got some medicine for you, too. Act as presctibed, this time. Wait for the end of OCTOBER to confirm we've broke out of 27,200 (27k - 27.5k) terrible shithole of a resistance with 2 green monthly candles. Once this madness is over, just buy and hold.
Reason? September is the fiscal year end in the US. It'd be a nice touch to end September with a sweet green candle, otherwise dorks from the Wallstreet will not be able to jerk each other explaining their bosses why their portfolios are underperforming an S&P500 ETF yet they expect to receive a giant ass quartetly bonus for their shitpile of a portfolio. They'll have to come up with some explanation next quarter - and that explanation is just buying a lot more in hopes of ETF approval and/or halving.
Once October monthly candle is green, we 100% are above the resistance of 27,400 and it's a GG. It'll be a race to whoever enters a larger position. Should my plan fail - there's a clear stop again, but this time at around below this new buy zone - say 26,690 (I'll need to see the price action). Sooo that'll still be a 2 - 4% SL and a a 200%+ TP. Do you like the odds? While I am more than 50% confident in my call, I have to only be right like 1% of the time. It's a money printing machine.
-----
Good news is, I am now confident this is a decent setup to break old ATH. Do not miss the train. Follow for updates. Cheers.
TLDR for the Tik-Tokers:
SEPTEMBER GREEN, OCTOBER GREEN = ME BUY 01 NOVEMBER A LOT
SEPTEMBER GREEN, OCTOBER RED = ME NO NO BUY IN NOVEMBER
So, this was a very conservative and blatantly obvious entry at 25k - 26k with the following in mind:
(1) clear SL: 25k is a must hold level, 100% uncertain what's happening below
(2) clear short term target which is 30k - 33k, which is dead and fake - see below
(3) clear TP: real temporary exit zone which is nearing liquid ATH (not 69k, below)
(4) clear long-term horizon: I'm adding a significant (for me!) part of my portolio into BTC after exiting in the range of 28,300 - 31,500 when I realised buying liquidity is dead and my hopes of breaking 30 - 33k zone were dead.
The fk is LIQUID ATH
I define LIQUID ALL TIME HIGH (ATH) as a zone where a giant amount of liquidity may have had an opportunity to buy or sell at insanely high prices. While the nominal ATH is 69,420, this spot is illiquid in terms of (1) volume and (2) time. Could I buy or sell 1 BTC at 69,420? Maybe. 1000 BTC? Very unlikely. How much time did I have to fill this trade? A couple of days best? Real liquidity enters positions for MONTHS. So the real liquid BTC all time high is 50k - 60k zone. Whoever claims they sold at 69k are liars. Whoever bought at 60k - 69k is a mass-media brainwashed sheep and an exit liqidity for the Coinbase IPO sellouts.
Why is 30k - 33k resistance dead and fake?
Because. Orders were moved lower and lower, and buying liquidity temporarily lost. Binance FUD. Somehow we held 25k - no idea why. I was worried we'd go lower. Now that everyone sold all the way down from 31k to 25k, there's no one to sell at 30 - 33k. Only up.
Did you not enter at 25k - 26k because you're an inconfident loser?
Fear not, I've got some medicine for you, too. Act as presctibed, this time. Wait for the end of OCTOBER to confirm we've broke out of 27,200 (27k - 27.5k) terrible shithole of a resistance with 2 green monthly candles. Once this madness is over, just buy and hold.
Reason? September is the fiscal year end in the US. It'd be a nice touch to end September with a sweet green candle, otherwise dorks from the Wallstreet will not be able to jerk each other explaining their bosses why their portfolios are underperforming an S&P500 ETF yet they expect to receive a giant ass quartetly bonus for their shitpile of a portfolio. They'll have to come up with some explanation next quarter - and that explanation is just buying a lot more in hopes of ETF approval and/or halving.
Once October monthly candle is green, we 100% are above the resistance of 27,400 and it's a GG. It'll be a race to whoever enters a larger position. Should my plan fail - there's a clear stop again, but this time at around below this new buy zone - say 26,690 (I'll need to see the price action). Sooo that'll still be a 2 - 4% SL and a a 200%+ TP. Do you like the odds? While I am more than 50% confident in my call, I have to only be right like 1% of the time. It's a money printing machine.
-----
Good news is, I am now confident this is a decent setup to break old ATH. Do not miss the train. Follow for updates. Cheers.
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