#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. Market finally did it and had a casual 11% pullback on Thursday. Talk about store of value. That’s crazy people talk who are in denial that this is not a textbook ponzi. Market might retest 104k or not, once we drop below 90k this rally is likely over and we will be on our way down. This is not the breakout to 200k. If you believe that, you are in peak greed-land in your head. I can see this moving somewhat more sideways but with very limited upside potential. Yearly close below 90000 is my rough guess for now.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon.
key levels: 90000 - 110000
bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but thats about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Decent pullback on Thursday. The next fast drop below 90000 could lead to much lower prices but it’s speculation as of now. Bears first target is to prevent the market from a new ath next week and then a daily close below the 20ema. After that, we can look for lower targets.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 97327 and now we are at 100k. Big up and somewhat big down last week, where market basically went nowhere.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed big bull trend line and added the current channel.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. Market finally did it and had a casual 11% pullback on Thursday. Talk about store of value. That’s crazy people talk who are in denial that this is not a textbook ponzi. Market might retest 104k or not, once we drop below 90k this rally is likely over and we will be on our way down. This is not the breakout to 200k. If you believe that, you are in peak greed-land in your head. I can see this moving somewhat more sideways but with very limited upside potential. Yearly close below 90000 is my rough guess for now.
Quote from last week:
comment: No updates after previous week tbh. Market went sideways and we still have to print 100k. Market could do another pullback to the daily 20ema before getting there but it could also very well just spike up there and sell off. As long as it trades above the daily ema, bears have zero arguments for anything but scalps between 90k - 100k.
comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon.
key levels: 90000 - 110000
bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but thats about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Decent pullback on Thursday. The next fast drop below 90000 could lead to much lower prices but it’s speculation as of now. Bears first target is to prevent the market from a new ath next week and then a daily close below the 20ema. After that, we can look for lower targets.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 90-100k
→ Last Sunday we traded around 97327 and now we are at 100k. Big up and somewhat big down last week, where market basically went nowhere.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed big bull trend line and added the current channel.
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