BITCOIN - New LOWER LOW (LL)
Updated
The price has made a first Lower Low (LL) since February 2019!
Yes, this constant growing without any significant lower lows has been going on for so long.
I hope that you saw my yesterday's post where I warned you that this may occur. The first sign was a Lower High (LH) and the final warning came after the 1H candle got a close below the trendline. This trendline was a part of the chart pattern called Rising Wedge. Rising Wedge is a bearish chart pattern and it has started to work after the breakout and it supports my correction bias.
The Daily candle still managed to close above the $8,000. It can be a little hope for the bullish bias owners because at the moment the price is in the bounce area. Around $7,800 matching some reversal criteria but not so significant. In Forex, those criteria are probably solid to enter into the trade but in Crypto, we have to consider one of the most important factor - the panic.
A high count of traders waited for a correction and here are the first bigger steps into it.
A said before, the Lower Low (LL) has confirmed and it is confirmed on the 4H chart - candle close below the $8,000 and it is lower than the previous HL (logical). The 4H chart confirmation, a breakout from the bearish chart pattern are enough to say that the short-, mid-term bias is bearish.
I said that this could be a bounce area but still, I can't say it surely because below the current price is much more reliable rejection areas for short-term trades perspective.
The minor support area around $7,500
- Previous support area, which has played a role on the trendline (Rising Wedge bottom line) touches.
- The psychological number $7,500 should act as a support level. Not so significant as the full round numbers but still worth to mention it.
- 4H EMA 200 acts as a support level.
- Fibonacci retracement 38%, pulled from 25. April low to the 30. May high.
- Fibonacci retracement 62%, pulled from 17. May low to the 30. May high.
As mentioned, a minor bounce area. Some of the criteria matching in this first/higher blue area but the waves from the top don't visually look very good and logical that this can hold the price. A bullish candlestick pattern would be perfect, other ways I don't rely on this level.
The major support area $6,500-$7,000
Yes, a pretty wide range but it is what it is, here are the criteria:
1. Fibonacci retracement 50% ~$7,000
2. Fibonacci retracement 62% ~$6,540, both are pulled from 25. April low to the 30. May high.
3. Fibonacci retracement 38% ~$6,820, pulled from 15. Dec. 2018 low (from the bottom) to the 30. May high.
4. The round number $7,000 and even $6,500
5. Daily EMA 50 should act as a support level.
6. The known strong price level at $6,700
7. Previously worked support and the area where may have a lot of buyers.
8. Chart pattern Rising Wedge breakout target is pointed exactly into the lower blue box.
9. Historically, some Monthly lows and highs have been in this area.
-* Some sloppy curve trendlines are also in this area which gives a little support but nothing significant.
SUMMARY: At the moment, before today's candle close, before data collecting from the current levels, etc., I can say that the major support area stays around $6,500-$7,000. Before that, I will be really cautious and I recommend it to you also. We might get a bounce here at $7,800 but for me, the short-, mid-term bias has changed into a bearish because of the breakout from the bearish chart pattern Rising Wedge and because of the Lower Low which has been unique since February. If there is something strange going on than I will warn you!
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You!
Best regards!
Previous analysis:
Yes, this constant growing without any significant lower lows has been going on for so long.
I hope that you saw my yesterday's post where I warned you that this may occur. The first sign was a Lower High (LH) and the final warning came after the 1H candle got a close below the trendline. This trendline was a part of the chart pattern called Rising Wedge. Rising Wedge is a bearish chart pattern and it has started to work after the breakout and it supports my correction bias.
The Daily candle still managed to close above the $8,000. It can be a little hope for the bullish bias owners because at the moment the price is in the bounce area. Around $7,800 matching some reversal criteria but not so significant. In Forex, those criteria are probably solid to enter into the trade but in Crypto, we have to consider one of the most important factor - the panic.
A high count of traders waited for a correction and here are the first bigger steps into it.
A said before, the Lower Low (LL) has confirmed and it is confirmed on the 4H chart - candle close below the $8,000 and it is lower than the previous HL (logical). The 4H chart confirmation, a breakout from the bearish chart pattern are enough to say that the short-, mid-term bias is bearish.
I said that this could be a bounce area but still, I can't say it surely because below the current price is much more reliable rejection areas for short-term trades perspective.
The minor support area around $7,500
- Previous support area, which has played a role on the trendline (Rising Wedge bottom line) touches.
- The psychological number $7,500 should act as a support level. Not so significant as the full round numbers but still worth to mention it.
- 4H EMA 200 acts as a support level.
- Fibonacci retracement 38%, pulled from 25. April low to the 30. May high.
- Fibonacci retracement 62%, pulled from 17. May low to the 30. May high.
As mentioned, a minor bounce area. Some of the criteria matching in this first/higher blue area but the waves from the top don't visually look very good and logical that this can hold the price. A bullish candlestick pattern would be perfect, other ways I don't rely on this level.
The major support area $6,500-$7,000
Yes, a pretty wide range but it is what it is, here are the criteria:
1. Fibonacci retracement 50% ~$7,000
2. Fibonacci retracement 62% ~$6,540, both are pulled from 25. April low to the 30. May high.
3. Fibonacci retracement 38% ~$6,820, pulled from 15. Dec. 2018 low (from the bottom) to the 30. May high.
4. The round number $7,000 and even $6,500
5. Daily EMA 50 should act as a support level.
6. The known strong price level at $6,700
7. Previously worked support and the area where may have a lot of buyers.
8. Chart pattern Rising Wedge breakout target is pointed exactly into the lower blue box.
9. Historically, some Monthly lows and highs have been in this area.
-* Some sloppy curve trendlines are also in this area which gives a little support but nothing significant.
SUMMARY: At the moment, before today's candle close, before data collecting from the current levels, etc., I can say that the major support area stays around $6,500-$7,000. Before that, I will be really cautious and I recommend it to you also. We might get a bounce here at $7,800 but for me, the short-, mid-term bias has changed into a bearish because of the breakout from the bearish chart pattern Rising Wedge and because of the Lower Low which has been unique since February. If there is something strange going on than I will warn you!
Feel free to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE", it is my only fee from You!
Best regards!
Previous analysis:
Note
Now it looks like a good moment to relive those criteria why I said that this could be a bounce area.To be said, it is still very risky but after the drop, the price stopped because of:
- Fibonacci extension 127%
- ABC Equal waves C point
- Channel projection
- The Daily candle close was above the $8,000 which may give hope for bullish bias owners
- And now the price has started to make a breakout from the bullish chart pattern called Inverted Head & Shoulders. It gets more reliable after the 1H close above the psychological number $8,000 but those are the prementioned bounce signs.
Let's see...
Note
New BTC analysis, awesome similarity:
Feel free to support this idea post by hitting the "LIKE",
All the best!
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