What to expect from the next BTC move?
Updated
What is more important for you when you place a trade? I am sure that the majority of retail trades answer that buying low and selling high is the Holy Grail in the market. Of couse, this is the whole point in order to stay profitable. Also, for some reason many traders ideally want to buy at lower prices rather then buying at 10-12-15k and it does make very much sense. However, when we consider the win rate and the risk-reward ratio before every trade, what matters more is how much of our account we risk vs. how much we can make from a certain price movement percentage-wise. Let's say if I risk 2% of my account and the Risk-Reward Ratio from my next trade is expected to be at 3:1, then I will make 3x times my risk amount no matter what the price of BTC is. As simple as that!
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My short-term view on BTC is biased toward the continuation of the upside move. We are very likely to blast through 8000 because many traders are ready to sell at around 8000. If this happens, the sell orders will trigger additional fuel for a blast. The massive price action on the 7th-9th of March could have constructed a strong resistance zone where I expect those who bought at $4000-5000 to take profits with significant gains. Also, as we are approaching a trendline from Dec 2017, the bounce back down is very plausible.
For now, I would not recomend buying because the risk-reward is terrible. And especially there is an absolute NO for buying if the price is blasts through 8000 as we do not know if we go any further up. At that point I would start looking for a SELL.
What I expect in the near future?
I think we may see a blast of $600-800 and continuation to $9000 where I see a good selling opportunity with a very good risk-reward ratio (5:1 or higher depending on your stop-loss).
When the scenario is violated?
My idea above will be violated if the price moves sharply below 6700-6800. In that case the movement to 5500-6000 is very likely to occur.
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GENERAL RULES TO KEEP YOU SAFE:
1. Do not risk more than 2-3% per trade!
2. Try to wait for a trade with the Risk-Reward Ratio at least 3:1
3. Always use stop-loss!
4. Do not FOMO and do not add to a losing trade
6. Remember: Patience is the key!
THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE so, please do not follow it if you are in doubt. DYOR!
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My short-term view on BTC is biased toward the continuation of the upside move. We are very likely to blast through 8000 because many traders are ready to sell at around 8000. If this happens, the sell orders will trigger additional fuel for a blast. The massive price action on the 7th-9th of March could have constructed a strong resistance zone where I expect those who bought at $4000-5000 to take profits with significant gains. Also, as we are approaching a trendline from Dec 2017, the bounce back down is very plausible.
For now, I would not recomend buying because the risk-reward is terrible. And especially there is an absolute NO for buying if the price is blasts through 8000 as we do not know if we go any further up. At that point I would start looking for a SELL.
What I expect in the near future?
I think we may see a blast of $600-800 and continuation to $9000 where I see a good selling opportunity with a very good risk-reward ratio (5:1 or higher depending on your stop-loss).
When the scenario is violated?
My idea above will be violated if the price moves sharply below 6700-6800. In that case the movement to 5500-6000 is very likely to occur.
========================================
GENERAL RULES TO KEEP YOU SAFE:
1. Do not risk more than 2-3% per trade!
2. Try to wait for a trade with the Risk-Reward Ratio at least 3:1
3. Always use stop-loss!
4. Do not FOMO and do not add to a losing trade
6. Remember: Patience is the key!
THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE so, please do not follow it if you are in doubt. DYOR!
Note
A quick update:So far the price has moved in our favor and still shows quite stong bullish momentum. For sure, there is no shorting opportunity yet and we have to wait for the right time. We have approached the level where a massive sell-off happened on the March 7th but from the current momentum it does look like this area will not stop BTC from moving a little higher. Also, I would not focus much on a yearly trendline because how everyone draws it is purely a subjective case. Moreover, the BTC can easily shoot through significant zones like it did many time in the past.
If you are in a trade...
If you bought at $7000 or lower, now is a perfect time to secure some profits. I suggest to take profit on at least 50% of your position and move your stop to around $8200. Personally, I would close a trade at these levels and wait for another trading opportunity.
If you jumped in after the breakout of $9200, then I strongly suggest to minimize your risk by moving your stop-loss to break even. We are approaching a point of exhaustion and the price can drop sharply.
What next?
With all talks about BTC halving, retail traders expect the MOON and that's where the opportunity for our next trade lies. We will most likely see a test of either a yearly trendline at around $9600 or a test of recent highs at $10500. I believe that at that point we can look for selling opportunity.
I am expecting one of the following two scenarios:
If the price breaks through a trendline but fails, it could retrace all the way to $7000-7500 OR if it breaks through a trendline and tests $10500 then the trendline might surve a strong support.
Note
Possible 4H buying opportunity: Not so long time ago everyone was screeming that bitcoin is going to the moon and it is time to buy, buy,buy!!! When such things happen, you as a trader, should be aware. Below is my idea about possible buying opportunity on the 4H timeframe.
After a strong pump, we could see a pulback to $8200 followed by another bullish movement.. Perhaps all the way to $10500. This is contradictory because the majority expects a big dump after halving. Another push will confuse many retail traders and possibly force them to jump back in when the price moves past $9500.
If you decide to trade it, wait for a pullback and some sort of bullish confirmation before entry.
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