Next transition state lead to 31616.3
Updated
New Method I developed and want to test, so this is more of an experiment.
General idea is that while a name consolidates it will follow a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), and the next state will be determined by the probabilities of a stochastic matrix.
- let a section here be a single diamond and a state be a neighborhood of 4 diamonds. The diamonds are drawn by making a base symmetrical triangle using rays, and then cloned to run parallel to the base at equidistance +-1, +-2, +-3,+-4,...+-n from base with the probability of breakout increasing with increasing n.
- the most probable next state will be the range from 28516 - 30840, however, due to the accelerating rate of BTCs most recent transition over the state path (drawn in yellow/highlight and merely connects the observed states in sequence), there is a decent probability BTC will generate the escape velocity here to break above 30840 and test 31616.3 (green projected path), if rejected at or before 30840 it will most likely continue its consolidation (red path).
- Estimated time to reach 31616.3 is by May 28. If it can break 31616.3 good chances it will do so by forming an impulse wave, a corrective wave to test old resistance for support, and then attempt true breakout of range and on to more exciting days.
Happy Trading,
Nash John
General idea is that while a name consolidates it will follow a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), and the next state will be determined by the probabilities of a stochastic matrix.
- let a section here be a single diamond and a state be a neighborhood of 4 diamonds. The diamonds are drawn by making a base symmetrical triangle using rays, and then cloned to run parallel to the base at equidistance +-1, +-2, +-3,+-4,...+-n from base with the probability of breakout increasing with increasing n.
- the most probable next state will be the range from 28516 - 30840, however, due to the accelerating rate of BTCs most recent transition over the state path (drawn in yellow/highlight and merely connects the observed states in sequence), there is a decent probability BTC will generate the escape velocity here to break above 30840 and test 31616.3 (green projected path), if rejected at or before 30840 it will most likely continue its consolidation (red path).
- Estimated time to reach 31616.3 is by May 28. If it can break 31616.3 good chances it will do so by forming an impulse wave, a corrective wave to test old resistance for support, and then attempt true breakout of range and on to more exciting days.
Happy Trading,
Nash John
Note
That worked out nicely, lets see if it can establish new support now around the 31616.3 before attempting a run to 34k-37k. If it cant find support here it has some underneath around to 30.8k. Will need to hold at least that if it wants to extend the bullish momentum off last weeks low
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