anyone who tells you this isn't a tough call is lying to you.
we knew where/when this retest was coming since june, we saw evidence that price might be topping out last week, and now we're faced with a critical decision: to buy or not to buy.
we've had a few months of deep discounts now, and most of us have been averaging back in here and there. if you're like me, you're still sitting on a chunk of change and wondering when to go all-in.
take a look at what happened in 2018 after price broke out above the downtrend for the first time:
look familiar? to be clear, i'm absolutely not saying that's what's going to happen here. i'm just saying it could happen, so i'm keeping it in mind while i decide whether to buy this retest (re-retest?).
basically, i'm looking for a higher high (roughly
48K-$50k) with no (bearish) divergence before i call this a reversal and a continuation of the bull run. i won't be impressed by another display of support on the downtrend line. as we've seen in the past, price is perfectly happy to ride that trendline down to lower lows.
to put it simply: this thing is going to 6 figures, at some point. waiting to buy at $48-50k, you may miss out on a 5-10%. BUT if you buy now and we get rejected and continue to consolidate, you miss out on 40-50%.
we knew where/when this retest was coming since june, we saw evidence that price might be topping out last week, and now we're faced with a critical decision: to buy or not to buy.
we've had a few months of deep discounts now, and most of us have been averaging back in here and there. if you're like me, you're still sitting on a chunk of change and wondering when to go all-in.
take a look at what happened in 2018 after price broke out above the downtrend for the first time:
look familiar? to be clear, i'm absolutely not saying that's what's going to happen here. i'm just saying it could happen, so i'm keeping it in mind while i decide whether to buy this retest (re-retest?).
basically, i'm looking for a higher high (roughly
48K-$50k) with no (bearish) divergence before i call this a reversal and a continuation of the bull run. i won't be impressed by another display of support on the downtrend line. as we've seen in the past, price is perfectly happy to ride that trendline down to lower lows. to put it simply: this thing is going to 6 figures, at some point. waiting to buy at $48-50k, you may miss out on a 5-10%. BUT if you buy now and we get rejected and continue to consolidate, you miss out on 40-50%.
Note
more on the 2018 analogue. these wedges have a lot of similarities:Note
Note
and here's the least fun line i've seen in a while:Note
well we got that higher high, but RSI is still divergent on the daily and 4h. i guess if it continues to diverge, eventually it will technically become oversold lolNote
multiple 4h candles have now found support on the bull trendline
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.