Short

BTC Next Steps

Updated

The prior patterns appear to be repeating based on Fib %'s, Trend lines, and Fib Circle analysis.
The Pi Top indicator triggered on the Daily as shown for the prior 2 bull runs. Think we are heading down.
Posting here for future reference and back testing.
Comments welcome.

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We are down ~50% from the recent high of 69k.
As of 1/22/22, we are in the $34-35k zone where another double-digit drop will get us to target at ~19k.
Waiting is the hardest part!

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The $19,675 target is still in play; waiting for the drop. DYOR and NFA.

Trade active

Target is still in play at 18k - 20k; the 38.2% retrace must be realized before we can move higher. [38.2% = "Continuation of Prior Trend"]
See also 'The Perfectionist' ...

The rainbow chart analysis of Bitcoin since 2012

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We are at the trend line now 24k ... expecting price to continue down to the 38.2% level (20k) and most likely the candle will wick below.

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I'm ready for the next drop.

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A wick down to around 5-6k is still in the cards.

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June 18, 2022 @ ~$17,550 was the bottom; moving up.

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Bottomed 8/19 on 2 major support fib lines; expecting move to upside next

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$17,550 is not the bottom ... 5k is now in the cards

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Price breaking the blue support line at $19,675

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The big drop is happening; $14-15k range is next

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OOps; went back up to verify resistance around 22k

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Price getting ready to double bottom at $17,600 on approx. Oct 9, '22. This will be the 3rd touch at this price point since Dec '20

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Lesson Learned: I should have had a 2nd blue line at price point $17,600 as price usually drops below the support line and then jumps above and down again to confirm prior to moving higher.

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Price fell below the 20k major support line

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GBTC Stock equivalent to BTCUSD.
Death Cross on GBTC Weekly (50ema Xdown 200ema) is COMPLETE; a foretelling of a huge BTC drop incoming?

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Almost forgot; ~7k is a 61.8% fib retrace from the very bottom; if/when this occurs/completes, the 1.618% fib extension then predicts a 200k BTC in May '25. Enjoy every sandwich!

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Reality check; seeing a major reversal in the works after taking a fresh look at my chart trendlines, price action and Fib levels. A close above 19k (Fib retrace of 61.8% from recent top) means more upside ... I see that we still haven't reached the 2.272% Fib extension for this recent bull run yet. More to come.

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Outlook: Bullish thru May '25
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Inspired by coffee ... took a number of hours and brought my original chart published Sep '21 to current as well as project out for this next bull run. View updated chart at: tradingview.com/chart/B3FjzB3b/

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It's ELECTION Day in the U.S. and when price closes above $19,340 (61.8% fib retrace level from recent top), we may be confirming a 1.618% price extension target of approximately 33k. Time will tell. Buckle up!

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BTC is so simple to figure out; BUT, so complicated when it comes to the day, weekly price action because TIME is like HindSight ... you wish you had it sooner than later. Was enjoying my morning coffee the other day when I looked at the big picture of BTC and I couldn't believe my eyes ... the pattern is self-evident after 5 years of hard-core trading ... am expecting BTC to take a haircut between now and March '23 so wait if you want or DCA in ... everyone can be a winner. And be sure to enjoy a turkey sandwich and pumpkin pie with family and friends ... there is so much to be thankful for ! Enjoy every sandwich!

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Expecting a push up as high as $18,500 and then the retrace begins.

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Ok; before having my whiskey tonight, the Bitcoin price action pattern (Head & Shoulders) and key channels came into view and I felt like a kid in a candy store.
1) top peak of the current channel is ~$18,265 and some change; that is as high as BTCUSD will go period ;)
2) market makers will be grinch this year and tank BTCUSD on Christmas Day thru New Years
3) and they will send us into a free fall to the ~7k range
Enjoy every sandwich and i pray your stockings are full of good stuff this year!
MAGA Bearish until we hit the bottom the end of Feb '23 =;)

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As of 12/27/22, we're at 17k and trapped in the fib circle ... am expecting price to traverse down the circle ... next stop is 7k. Enjoy the ride down. ;)

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As of 7/1/23, price action is continuing to follow the fib circles and channel that I built back in September 2021 ... it will be interesting to see what happens once price jumps back into the main channel ...

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Hit the trendline; still in initial phase of bull run.

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$19,675 is calling like a magnet ...

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283k is calling like a magnet :)
Like any cycle ... to know the time, is to know the season.

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Price trapped between Fib circles and will range between 28k and for a few weeks; then expecting a drop to the 19k range by Feb-Mar '24 (same pattern just uses a new ratio) ... these are the times that test our patience.

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The "38.2% Drop from the Top" support line nailed the bottom; the dip below was due to the FTX exchange black swan event.

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Price is back above the 38.2% trendline and seeking support on the trendline; then, we all know what comes next :)

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We are right on track ... consolidation zone ... the squeeze is coming.

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This chart was originally published back in September of 2021 ... AND ... the fib circles and trendlines are still relevant ... how did I know?!?!?

The price squeeze is on as I write ... but there is plenty of time (until April of 2024) to accumulate more BTC ... there is still time for the masses to wake up ... wake up people ... and smell the BTC.

Am expecting after a pump to 58k we retrace 38.2% to the 45k zone and then the real parabolic move begins. I have an idea based on the last 3 cycles where the top target is for this cycle but will let my indicators reveal the top ... and will publish here at that point.

Until then ... Enjoy every sandwich and take time to smell the BTC !

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Very few realize the scope and speed of the next BTC price action move + moves ... #HODL #NO-LEVERAGE-NEEDED #PATIENCE #HUMILITY

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The price squeeze is game on! ... until the halving in the April-May timeframe.
#HODL

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Price topped out (for now) at the fib circle at about 70k

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Expecting a 1st target in the range 600k - $1,000,000 ... but hold on ... this cycle is different so stay on the rocket ship ... there may be a phase II to this cycle.

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Price is still tracking within the main channel ... am expecting a breakout this cycle above this channel that propels us to Mars. Minds will be blown.
REMINDER: As inflation is > 12%/year ... and taxes eat a % of gains ... BTC gains will far exceed any stock except for MSTR of course ... you ask about a strategy? There is but only one ... HODL DCA HODL DCA HODL DCA !!!

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Hummm ... i wonder if we will retrace back to the major trendline here?

kerdirks

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