Bitcoin, low volume and stop hunting time :(
Updated
During the holiday's the volume dropped a lot compared to the whole 5/6 weeks before that. Thinking it was because of the holiday's, but we are already half way of this month and the volume is still extremely low. The whole reason why we have been seeing these squeezes up and down again, those ugly small moves up and squeezes down and vice versa. But what do you see when you look at the volume of ETH' at Bitmex, it is still just as high. This proves what i have been saying the past days, ETH' has become the new toy of the market, of the people/whales/funds (or whatever you want to call them). Worst of it all, the volume is not even that big for ETH'.
BTC' ETH'
Open Interest: 390mil 60mil
Volume: 870mil 280mil
This shows, that traders of the ETH' trade on much smaller time frames. Meaning, they get in and out much sooner. So in other words, there is much more gambling going on. How come, if your a trader who has a lot of volume, it is extremely easy to manipulate the price of ETH'. Because the % movement of ETH' is also much bigger than BTC', it's so much easier to make your profits through ETH' than through Bitcoin. Since the market has been following ETH' several times now (moments where ETH' pumps or dumps and BTC' follows minutes later even), how serious can we take this market at the moment? You all know what i have showed on ETH the past week or 2, what i noticed when i started to give it more attention. One thing is very obvious, they get their big positions in and out through those big short and long squeezes. There we can see how the market ETH price moves because of those big liqs. Even today, with that move to 127.5, it got Barted a bit, and with the drop from 124.5 to 121, it was a 2 mil and a 10 mil spoof orders, which pushed the market down. Scaring everyone into selling and dumping their ETH.
I wish it was easy to combine all of our volume and to give them a piece of their own medicine :)
Anyway, back to the Bitcoin' chart. There is not a lot that has changed since my previous analysis. My assumption is still (in the bearish and bullish version) that we need to see another move up above the previous high, to complete an ABC correction. With all this noise of the past days (the PingPong movement) and the low volume, i have become less sure of it.
For the bearish version, we need to break the low around 3500. If that happens, we need to assume the 3200/3300 zone will get tested again. The low volume is very worrying, because that suggest that zone might not even hold if we get there. But as mentioned above, there is still a chance we complete this ABC before moving down again.
Bullish version, this one does not have much chances of succeeding, since there is no bullish momentum at all at the moment. Also the low volume is a big problem. The high volume we had in Dec, was quite promising but the past days, i am afraid it might just have been some short term big traders getting in the market and who got out of the market at highs again and are no where to be seen at the moment. The only way a bullish version can come out of this, is if we see a few small rallies in a row. Something i showed you guys a month ago. Actually we had a start today, where i did that update with that small bull flag. If the bulls would be able to continue that trend, of bouncing up from previous highs, then there is a chance. But as we saw today with that breakout, there was an immediate Bart dump pushing the price back down again. It's just the lack volume. As long as we don't see volume, we will continue to see these bot's do their thing.
The purple circle, is where we should be at the moment (ignore the time difference).
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
BTC' ETH'
Open Interest: 390mil 60mil
Volume: 870mil 280mil
This shows, that traders of the ETH' trade on much smaller time frames. Meaning, they get in and out much sooner. So in other words, there is much more gambling going on. How come, if your a trader who has a lot of volume, it is extremely easy to manipulate the price of ETH'. Because the % movement of ETH' is also much bigger than BTC', it's so much easier to make your profits through ETH' than through Bitcoin. Since the market has been following ETH' several times now (moments where ETH' pumps or dumps and BTC' follows minutes later even), how serious can we take this market at the moment? You all know what i have showed on ETH the past week or 2, what i noticed when i started to give it more attention. One thing is very obvious, they get their big positions in and out through those big short and long squeezes. There we can see how the market ETH price moves because of those big liqs. Even today, with that move to 127.5, it got Barted a bit, and with the drop from 124.5 to 121, it was a 2 mil and a 10 mil spoof orders, which pushed the market down. Scaring everyone into selling and dumping their ETH.
I wish it was easy to combine all of our volume and to give them a piece of their own medicine :)
Anyway, back to the Bitcoin' chart. There is not a lot that has changed since my previous analysis. My assumption is still (in the bearish and bullish version) that we need to see another move up above the previous high, to complete an ABC correction. With all this noise of the past days (the PingPong movement) and the low volume, i have become less sure of it.
For the bearish version, we need to break the low around 3500. If that happens, we need to assume the 3200/3300 zone will get tested again. The low volume is very worrying, because that suggest that zone might not even hold if we get there. But as mentioned above, there is still a chance we complete this ABC before moving down again.
Bullish version, this one does not have much chances of succeeding, since there is no bullish momentum at all at the moment. Also the low volume is a big problem. The high volume we had in Dec, was quite promising but the past days, i am afraid it might just have been some short term big traders getting in the market and who got out of the market at highs again and are no where to be seen at the moment. The only way a bullish version can come out of this, is if we see a few small rallies in a row. Something i showed you guys a month ago. Actually we had a start today, where i did that update with that small bull flag. If the bulls would be able to continue that trend, of bouncing up from previous highs, then there is a chance. But as we saw today with that breakout, there was an immediate Bart dump pushing the price back down again. It's just the lack volume. As long as we don't see volume, we will continue to see these bot's do their thing.
The purple circle, is where we should be at the moment (ignore the time difference).
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
This reminds me too much to the 6K are movement, just so ugly. Anyway, now we should have set the purple zone, the higher low. So it should not break anymore, otherwise i don't know what the next step will be. There was a fight going on earlier with ETH. But like Bitcoin, it got pushed back down again, simply because volume is just not enough to trade against these bots. I wish i could give guidance, but on the low time frame, its almost better to flip a coin now
I am focusing more on the normal markets the past days, much more interesting than this
Note
New updated btc analysis:
Note
Kraken made a big squeeze up once again, the other one was 01 Jan, also a low volume day. The volume that day was a bit higher. I don't know if it is an indication again or not, just wanted to show it. Since the move afterwards was up. The current bull flag is also less convincing, but still possibly in play.
Note
The daily which looked decent earlier and volume was okay as well, started to look quite weak now. The bull flag shows no sign of buying. So it needs a small bounce sooner or later, otherwise chances increase for a bull trap
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