Bitcoin - Dawn of the Dark with some Light
Updated
I posted a similiar chart as private idea some days ago. (tradingview.com/chart/XBTUSD/lDhV0hKb-Bitcoin-The-Dark-Knight/)
This idea here is an updated slightly adjusted version.
If i look at the big rise from 2017/2018 and our current swing i see certain similarities.
1. We created a top.
2. Downtrend and retest of the 50% of the swing.
3. Uptrend from the 50% and creating a swing high that takes out the big upper resistance
4. Again going towards 50% but this time no big buying showing up.
5. Fall under the 50% and heading towards the 23% - this is where we are now in the current swing
If both swings move similiar we should see the following happening now:
1. Move to the 23% level.
2. Buyers show up push price again towards the 50% level - but no clean retake
3. Price falling down again to the 23.60
Additional: In Both times we had Engulfs or SFPs of the High.
Problems with this analysis:
We cant deny that the retest of the 50% level on the second swing generated a Higher High (red line) - however its a weak Higher High as it barely went above the recent swinghigh. Besides the similiarities with the shakeout and retest of 2017. I classified it even as divergence or engulf in my recent analysis.
This idea here is an updated slightly adjusted version.
If i look at the big rise from 2017/2018 and our current swing i see certain similarities.
1. We created a top.
2. Downtrend and retest of the 50% of the swing.
3. Uptrend from the 50% and creating a swing high that takes out the big upper resistance
4. Again going towards 50% but this time no big buying showing up.
5. Fall under the 50% and heading towards the 23% - this is where we are now in the current swing
If both swings move similiar we should see the following happening now:
1. Move to the 23% level.
2. Buyers show up push price again towards the 50% level - but no clean retake
3. Price falling down again to the 23.60
Additional: In Both times we had Engulfs or SFPs of the High.
Problems with this analysis:
We cant deny that the retest of the 50% level on the second swing generated a Higher High (red line) - however its a weak Higher High as it barely went above the recent swinghigh. Besides the similiarities with the shakeout and retest of 2017. I classified it even as divergence or engulf in my recent analysis.
Note
Price approaching green levelNote
Price dipped into the green area and a small reaction so farTrade active
Opened a leveraged longNote
So far so good - around +6% up. But could imagine if that is the bottom that we might see a retest / shakeout.Note
Note
Personally i dont like the current structure Bitcoin developed. Price swept above GSH1 and fell this is to me very bearish. Closed my lev. longs and only holding for longterm. For lev. i would want to see either price going above GSH1 or price sweeping under the green support zone and reclaiming it.Note
~ +60%
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