Short

Updated

Bitcoin, Sideways weekend to 9800/1000, monday crashing again

And again an on point prediction :) almost followed my first blue line perfectly :), I called that low at 8550 a bit to soon, but we get the picture. Now it is entering resistance zone, 9300/9500 will be a big one. But we all know what we talked about lately, it's almost certain that most people who are short or went short, probably have a stop above the 9400, the low of a few weeks ago. So i think there is a big amount of stops hanging there. Based on my 'whales' theory, we should bounce off the 9400 and drop to around the 9000 (maybe lower, maybe a bit higher, thats guessing now), This way more short will be attracted into to the market, with even more stops around the 9500/9600. So than we should see another rescue operation from that 9000 up again to break the 9400 and starting to trigger many stops, who than turn into buys, creating a snowball effect (those bulls spike rallies up, giving the assumption buyers are in the market. Than buyers get lured in, from the breakout of 9400. I think we could go towards th 9800/10.000. There the whales will start to unload again, when their done, we could see another big wave down.

Pushing all the shorts out of the market, taking their money, luring buyers again in, taking their money too at the 9800/10000, than we drop again while:
-Many shorts positions have been chased out of the market and earning money from the people who shorted it at the lows.
- AND they have taken money from buyers again who bought at the breakout.
-So now the whales (who bought the market up from the 8300 up), made a big profit from the wave up. AND they have chased money short positions out of the market and making the wave down, WITHOUT them :).

It's quite the theory, time will tell :). But it's weekend now, volume is lower, manipulation is easier to take those directions. Perfect weekends sideways action, i have talked about many times now

I am still flat since i closed my shot position around the 8500. Maybe i will go long around the 9000, but only a small position, because it's a risky trade against the (down)trend. I will probably build up a big short position from the 9700 up to the 10.100. But of course better judgment at the moments it self.

--For new readers, more info at previous charts

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One of the updates of my previous chart. So far so good I said this morning, after it had formed that double bottom at the low and when it was already above the resistance of 8900, that we would go to around 9300. Now i have adjusted my short term view and plan a bit.

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I forgot to mention earlier, my theory, the line i drew, makes an H&S with a target around 10.300, could trigger extra buyers :) I am curious to see what will happen the coming days :)

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Something like this

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While i was still drawing, it started to fall :)

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Bitfinex a strange bigger drop than the others. a week ago they did this with Bitstamp. Each time it dropped to the low of that spike. Probably also this time

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Sideways and more sideways, i am so glad i am not in this frustrating action. If it stays above the green are the coming hour or 2, this H&S we see will fail, and could see a small acceleration up. It's all guessing now, it's weekend, so i am not trading on it!. I wanted to go long around 9000, but i missed the chance yesterday, was a strange move anyway

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I think the turning point has moved from 9400 to 9500, giving the impression that price gets sold several times

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To easy sometimes. Giving the impression we will crash again, think we still go up from around here, maybe 8900

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If my complete theory was right, than we should break the 9500 now, trigger short position stops, rally towards 9800/10.100, hang there a while beteren 10.000 and 9500, and than make another big drop :)

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Now i went long at 8550, very small position, risky trade. Dropped more than i though it would be. Thinking a double bottom could form here

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I have to say, i am surprised it dropped this much, did not expect it to happen in the weekend. It's not easy predicting the direction of the whales. I knew it was risky, thats why i did not take a position. But now the risk is forth it, Stop around the low of 8300. Potential is 9500/10.000, so good risk reward. Again, very small position!

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This could be a short term reversal, but it HAS to stay above the green

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I have upped my stop to around the low at 8400. Could be i jump out if it drops below the green

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I have upped my stop to just below the green, almost entry level. Small trading range now.

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close call, there we go :)

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Next resistance

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It started to look so good, i am out at 8500, 50 points loss. Was worth the risk, i am still surprised thought it's this weak. It was fun :) probably sideline tomorrow, taking another day off. Monday back in business

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There you are again :). Short covering!. I had the moves right in the original idea, but the price of the low wrong. Think we should see a break of the 9500. Because it took longer, and IF we break the 9500, the drop will probably be delayed a bit. But no guarantee the 9500. If it does, it triggers a 1000 point double bottom, predicting 10.500. Just wait and see.

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But the 9500 wont be easy

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Here we can see that the higher green line worked a few times as support and resistance. But it stayed above the bigger one. I think this correction up can take a bit longer than i said first. But depends on how fast we go towards the 10K

botje11

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