Price Action Disagrees with Bear Flag
I am seeing this most recent price action as pretty bullish movement.
On the higher time frame, yeah it looked like a bear pennant. The probability was/is definitely there. But as any experienced crypto chartist knows, Bitcoin loves pennants/flags/triangles and 9/10 times it breaks early.
The flag it formed was very weak in my opinion and I feel like the price action tells a different story than what you would normally see with a real/strong flag.
If it keeps going up slowly like this, not coming back down, people are going to start fomo'ing again/giving up on waiting for a pullback like always.
I would love to see some volume stepping in on this break up, but the overall sentiment is not bullish enough yet for volume to come in. We see things play out this way in crypto a LOT.
The volume comes later when a strong trend is established and people give up on waiting for entry opportunities.
Yes there is a LOT of risk still here and waiting for a stronger uptrend to develop would be the safer move. The probability is still high that it could fall back into said flag/break down from it. But the reward potential if this really is a reversal is just as high.
Higher risk entry for higher reward. But let's consider the actual risk/reward at this price and narrative.
The current mainstream narrative being pushed by whales/banks/news/etc is fear/risk/bearish.
Which, in my opinion, means they are still accumulating.
Now think about the risk/reward here:
If it drops to 20k that's still less than 50% loss at this price and 20k should be a pretty firm bottom in my opinion.
But if it even goes back to 60k, not even new all time highs, that's almost 100% return
So clearly the risk/reward ratio advantages the bulls if targeting 60k/20k (but more realistically stop loss at ~28k)
I am still long a small portion of my bitcoin, I sold more than half of it when we broke 60k the last time since everything on my charts was telling me momentum wasn't there anymore.
I won't be entering quite yet as I would like to see this play out past the
42K mark confirming trend reversal. But if that happens I will start accumulating the early momentum.
On the higher time frame, yeah it looked like a bear pennant. The probability was/is definitely there. But as any experienced crypto chartist knows, Bitcoin loves pennants/flags/triangles and 9/10 times it breaks early.
The flag it formed was very weak in my opinion and I feel like the price action tells a different story than what you would normally see with a real/strong flag.
If it keeps going up slowly like this, not coming back down, people are going to start fomo'ing again/giving up on waiting for a pullback like always.
I would love to see some volume stepping in on this break up, but the overall sentiment is not bullish enough yet for volume to come in. We see things play out this way in crypto a LOT.
The volume comes later when a strong trend is established and people give up on waiting for entry opportunities.
Yes there is a LOT of risk still here and waiting for a stronger uptrend to develop would be the safer move. The probability is still high that it could fall back into said flag/break down from it. But the reward potential if this really is a reversal is just as high.
Higher risk entry for higher reward. But let's consider the actual risk/reward at this price and narrative.
The current mainstream narrative being pushed by whales/banks/news/etc is fear/risk/bearish.
Which, in my opinion, means they are still accumulating.
Now think about the risk/reward here:
If it drops to 20k that's still less than 50% loss at this price and 20k should be a pretty firm bottom in my opinion.
But if it even goes back to 60k, not even new all time highs, that's almost 100% return
So clearly the risk/reward ratio advantages the bulls if targeting 60k/20k (but more realistically stop loss at ~28k)
I am still long a small portion of my bitcoin, I sold more than half of it when we broke 60k the last time since everything on my charts was telling me momentum wasn't there anymore.
I won't be entering quite yet as I would like to see this play out past the
42K mark confirming trend reversal. But if that happens I will start accumulating the early momentum.
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