BTCUSDT Bearish view

Learning how to identify pattern.
Looks like it s bearish.
So far it is following the pattern and bands since previous post.

Note

From previous :
As at 17/06 : new resistance @39.1K. new support level @37.4K
Invalidation of the down trend @41.2K

If it breaks down 37.4K next support level is @34.6

Note

Looks like it is following the pattern. (beginners luck :-)

In my opinion Next 12H will be critical.:
If it bounce above @38.3K then it is invalidated
If it goes down below @36.5 then next stop is @34.6

If you ask me where i get the the 36.7K. It s because it looks like its in the middle of all the 4 previous segments and the direction confirmation either way was done around that level.
Thanks to the person who liked the idea. ;-)

Note

Update 18/06:
Finally it didn't take 12H but 6H.
1st possibility : If I look at the first segment, It s going to be oscillating between @35K and @37K for the week end (same as May 5 to 7 ) which means a diversion from the trend, then a major drop on Monday to come back to the trend.
2nd possibility : stick to the trend line and continue @32K
3rd Possibility : A tweet from an influencer that invalidate the trend to send it up. The 34.5K is the price at which Tesla has bought its bitcoins and ElonMusk has always been tweeting when BTC price gets around that level. This option is unlikely to happen as the bullish effects of tweets have reduced.

If you are stopping by, please share your opinion.

Trade active

Update 19/06:
Options one has been going on well.
The bearish sentiment is getting higher and combined to some news like the china shutdown of mining which I don't really understand it's impact. Any news i don't understand is bearish by default, LOL.
Surprisingly no tweet from @elonmusk.
I think we are going to hit @34.5 on 20/06, if so @32K should be hit on 21/06 or even before.

To invalidate the downtrend it has to go and hold above 38.4K

Trade active

Update 20/06:
Still following the trend, BTC is around @34.5 (34699 at this time). BTW, this idea is more accurate on the daily chart.

The china mining news did not have an impact on the price.

So what's next?
Option 1: Follow the trend and go down to @31K there s a support at 31075
option 2: if 34.5K holds well, it will remains between 34K and 37K and it will drop to @30.5K on 21/06
Option 2: if 34.5K holds well, it will remains between 34K and 37K for some days
Option 3: bounce above 38.4K and it is invalidated

If it goes below 29.5 it means that there will be no bounce as expected and price should go down
The invalidation of this trend still @38.4K and end of bearish is @41.2K

I will review this idea on 21/06 and publish a new one to take into consideration :
- USD and Gold
- Stock market
- Other news

Trade closed: target reached

Update 21/06
Option 1played well. It followed the trend and dropped to @31.8K on the 21/06
The support also played well and BTC is now ranging between @32K and @34K

No reversal for now.
What is there to expect this week?
The pattern has changed on different and looks like a symmetrical faster reversal of December and January up trend.
One of the biggest issue is that both BTC and ETH are suffering from a strong bearish sentiment, they will be bringing each other down and accelerate it.
Except any major good news, the next levels i am looking at for the next 4 weeks are: @29K, @25K @22K and @17K
What can be a good news?
Bitcoin has been labeled as bad for climate, and no major company will take a risk of announcing they accept it. So if the new bitcoin council comes with a solution or at least a roadmap, it might be a great news.
ETH complete move to POS.
.....

Voila! i think i was over lucky with this first idea.lol, i hope it will continue.
Merci

Expansyx

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Expansyx