Hopium. When we can start even considering a bullish scenario.
Updated
The bulls are absolutely mental. It's completely insane. They are complete fanatics. It's gold fever all over again.
Now you see what greed can do to men. Can't reason with them, if you try showing facts they team up and get angry at you.
I think alot of them will simply end up in the hospital. The mental wing. And alot at the morgue.
As I have said already, this will all end very badly. Hope these morons don't show up at my door with pitchforks -.-
Ok, so what should a real trader look for?
We've been getting lower highs and lower lows for 2 months now, it has been so long.
If you want to even simply consider a bullish scenario we need at the very least to get a higher high, so go higher than 9177.
I'm not going to bother as long as we are below that.
We went past the pink downtrend (on our first try!), and we got a sudden green candle as a result, it's certainly possible we keep going up.
0.618 fibo at 9600 is good. It can signal either recovery had begun, or we retraced enough and are going to continue down. I'd look at MA's then.
Otherwise 10300, to go straight to 10300 we would have to break bullish out of the rising wedge thought. And the daily RSI would be out of this world.
That would be a decent recovery for the bulls, but if we get there (without retrace) we'd be so overbought we'd still get a 20% drop before going up further.
I could finally close my shorts :D
But let me show you why the pink line does NOT matter, going long there is only short term to rob the mentally ill fomo bulls (they won't need their money in the hospital, and losing their money is maybe the way for them to be cured, win-win):
Already shown several times 2014 so won't post it again.
So - totally bear until proven otherwise. I do not care how many people tell me they have very strong emotions telling them to buy. I only trust the charts.
I'd like to add, as you can see here, we go up way faster than we go down :/ Slow and boring falls. I guess people are more afraid to miss out than to lose money. It's going to take a long time to reach the bottom unless we already hit it...
+++ This isn't a call to go long or short +++
Now you see what greed can do to men. Can't reason with them, if you try showing facts they team up and get angry at you.
I think alot of them will simply end up in the hospital. The mental wing. And alot at the morgue.
As I have said already, this will all end very badly. Hope these morons don't show up at my door with pitchforks -.-
Ok, so what should a real trader look for?
We've been getting lower highs and lower lows for 2 months now, it has been so long.
If you want to even simply consider a bullish scenario we need at the very least to get a higher high, so go higher than 9177.
I'm not going to bother as long as we are below that.
We went past the pink downtrend (on our first try!), and we got a sudden green candle as a result, it's certainly possible we keep going up.
0.618 fibo at 9600 is good. It can signal either recovery had begun, or we retraced enough and are going to continue down. I'd look at MA's then.
Otherwise 10300, to go straight to 10300 we would have to break bullish out of the rising wedge thought. And the daily RSI would be out of this world.
That would be a decent recovery for the bulls, but if we get there (without retrace) we'd be so overbought we'd still get a 20% drop before going up further.
I could finally close my shorts :D
But let me show you why the pink line does NOT matter, going long there is only short term to rob the mentally ill fomo bulls (they won't need their money in the hospital, and losing their money is maybe the way for them to be cured, win-win):
Already shown several times 2014 so won't post it again.
So - totally bear until proven otherwise. I do not care how many people tell me they have very strong emotions telling them to buy. I only trust the charts.
I'd like to add, as you can see here, we go up way faster than we go down :/ Slow and boring falls. I guess people are more afraid to miss out than to lose money. It's going to take a long time to reach the bottom unless we already hit it...
+++ This isn't a call to go long or short +++
Note
I'm starting to think we can go to 11k (not in a straight line).But that won't make me bullish.
The reason?
This little cutie:
Note
The chart guys says he think there is correlation between BTC & the SP500.They sure are both tightening hard...
What I want to see and makes sense:
The world will start seeing storms in the next days (I mean actual ones) and rain and clouds, maybe that can cool their heads off and the euphoria drops and we can retrace a bit as we should, no more "the buying signal an immense bull run like we've never seen before 10 times 2017" lmao that's just so ridiculous.
People spending their money depending on wheather...
Note
Hopium!I had a private idea 2-3 weeks ago I looked at different markets, was wondering if it was possible crypto was in accumulation phase.
According to volume selling etc (if these can be trusted...) there was no capitulation not even close, so to me it's unlikely that was the bottom.
Check it for yourself if you're interested.
<deleted>
Note
Weakest rally since 20kActually it's getting weaker and weaker, bounce on 6k was biggest move up in % but it took 2 weeks and BTC was way oversold.
Verdict: All pointing towards being bearish for now. Weaker and weaker rallies.
People still making ridiculous calls for the moon, no one seems to be calling this another suckers rally. Crystal clear to me.
Breaking 12k, oh that would be bullish. Would have to go past 0.618 of whole correction (at ~15k) to be 90-95% sure. Past 20k is the only time it's 100% sure we go above 20k lol.
Note
I don't really know where to post this...We are approaching the monthly level of 10300.
Getting pretty overbought thought.
Why do I have a feeling we close the month on 10267 rofl....
If we go up there people are going to lose their mind and call for 100k lol.
People are hoping this is like 2013 and we go up instant, well in 2013 the inside month broke bearish, then there was a capitulation, and then only we went up.
Hopium can come when we go past 11788 (finex price).
And even then it's best to stay critical. Just never join the ranks of the donkeys getting all excited and calling for 100k or you're no better than the roulette player.
We're getting overbought, so if we are to go up, the odds are we won't be going there right away but spend some more time in consolidation.
Note
Hopium:For traders this is really good, the days where Bitcoin could go up (almost) with no ceiling are over, plenty of resistances now so at least we can know where it will stop can't go 100% up in a straight line.
Even if BTC goes above 20.000$ they will be (normally) all the trendlines we lost that would act as resistances at that point.
So at least we can figure out ceilings and not be left blind.
Note
For those interested in the bull/bear little battle.Buyers have rallied with strong passion, we got pretty close to 10k, can we go past it?
All eyes on 10300 now.
If we go down I hope it happens fast enough that we don't get 1 year of consolidation and every one loses interest and I can't trade crypto anymore :(
Going up up up for me would mean I'll keep shorting at as it will be running into baghodler areas (but also buying pullbacks).
Note
Monthly close above 10300 = insta bullish but not 100% sure.Watch what happens when 11788 gets tested!
Above 11788 I'd call a good swing trade entry long buuuut...
Not if every thing is so overbought no way.
Avoiding TV chat now... this bull bear war is so dumb.
"Trading" view. Whatever...
Feels like "Baghodler" view at times.
Note
Short version: Bull scenario is only a legit possibility if we go past 11788!This is it. No arguing. And even then we have to beat every fib levels first.
Wtf am I saying in my previous post.
Close above 10300 is a reason to have hope but far from turning to bull.
Great so now I started being biased towards bull too reading all the delusional bulls posts and stuff. Feels like 95% are convinced we go ath now because they saw a 30 min chart. Funny how when shorts went up bulls were saying "majority can't be right hence we'll go up" and now 95% people think we go up even people I trusted, believed in... That argument has vanished rofl.
STILL BEAR!
We keep getting lower highs lmao wtf and barely retraced 0.382.
Let me tell you a story, when I was a kid, maybe around 6 an old lady asked me what presents Santa would bring me, I asked her if she thought I was an idiot to believe in such nonsense, they tried to tell me the tooth fairy story too...Ye I went straight to my dad's things and found my teeth there :D I knew it!
So if I didn't fall for this at 6, I WON'T FALL FOR A BULL TRAP just because I saw a couple green candles on the 1 minute chart!
BEAR BEAR BEAR until a higher high has been set and we move out & above of the 6000-11788 consolidation.
Note
If you didn't know already, Bitcoin is at the moment correlated to dow jones and sp500.Yesterday the Dow Jones had a crash, even Cramer didn't know what to think, and Bitcoin fell $1000.
Possible they dictate BTC direction for the next weeks...
Note
A few months ago crypto enthusiasts "experts" were saying money going out of the market would go into crypto.Ye sure...when people pull out their money it's not to hold onto it keep it safe or put it into real estate, it's to throw it into virtual currency 10 times more volatile and 50 times riskier.
We now know for sure it's not the case. Seemed pretty obvious to me...
These markets should open soon I'm not sure when exactly.
Where they go from now to Friday close I guess will tell us what direction BTC goes until next week.
Note
The thing with these bear markets are:1/ There's plenty of bagholders just waiting to break even
2/ Most people haven't regained confidence and would panic sell at the first sign of trouble
So you need to break all these resistances and not have any FUD news or whale dumping long enough to leave the price time go up.
Which gives me an idea...
Look at these guys:
- George Soros: Got famous for breaking the bank of England, and making a profit of 1 billion usd after short selling 10 billion$ in GBP.
- Andrew Krieger: Used all the money his institution let him use to short with 400 leverage NZD, a position bigger than the countrie's whole money supply. After creating worldwide panic he got 300 million$ for his employer.
I don't have the money to rekt all the BTC delusional noobs that don't want to work :(
If someone became a legend out of scamming every BTC enthusiast thought...And revealed his identity, he'd be so hated by the population.
When you scam a large bank/government the plebs think it's a good thing someone stuck the finger to the big meanies, I don't think they'd smile if somone did this to the actual population directly.
Note
Where is the fast forward button? This is too slow.Now we went down as obviously would happen, we can look at the larger TF.
As long as we stay above $3000 BTC is bullish for the second half of 2018 and possibly 2019.
If it goes below that, the level to look at will be $163.
As long as BTC price stays above that, it is still bullish for the next maybe decade.
Lose that level and it's over.
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