BTCUSD A look at the bigger picture from a 'noob'
Updated
First and foremost. I'm not a skilled and experienced trader by any means and have no professional experience in the field.
However, what I'm seeing and piecing together I just feel that I need to share because the bullish sentiments floating around right now seem to be missing the bigger picture. My chart might seem funny and basic because it most certainly is, but I think we should all open our eyes for a second and really consider all of the variables at play here.
For several years now, bitcoin has been in a consistent downtrend since it's pump to 20k. The green lines on my chart form what seems to be the descending triangle that BTCUSD has been in since December 2017. Looking at the monthly scale, you can also see the area at approximately 6k that has shown strong support and resistance over the years. If we look at the monthly or even daily candle scale again, you can measure approximately how long BTCUSD maintained a price above that strong support before breaking through to the 3k level in November 2018. Taking this measured length (pink dotted line in my chart) and then applying it to where BTC broke above the ~6k level in approximately May 2019, we can immediately see that we are currently in a position EXTREMELY similar to where BTC was in November 2018. If BTCUSD were to repeat history, with our rough measurement we could see another break through to the 3k level or lower within the next few days or weeks.
Another point to note is that looking at the daily scale, the 50MA and 200MA have formed another 'death cross' (although I do not have that here in my analysis chart).
Furthermore, the downward moving resistance level formed from mid Feb. to the peak which was on March 7, is now being tested and BTC seems to continue being rejected at around the $7400 level.
Another perspective to take is that the recent uptrend that we have been seeing is a giant bearish flag or pennant that will soon break downward.
Lastly, from a 'non technical' TA point of view, COVID-19 is continuing to grow rapidly all around the world while businesses and economies have already shown weakness/suffered. The struggle that the world is facing and will continue to experience for the next few months at least, has and will translate to the markets. Manipulation from big players might make this all seem 'very bullish', but at a time when money is tightening for a lot of people, one can only assume that the bottom isn't in quite yet.
TLDR : There are a lot of factors suggesting that BTCUSD is in for another plunge.
However, what I'm seeing and piecing together I just feel that I need to share because the bullish sentiments floating around right now seem to be missing the bigger picture. My chart might seem funny and basic because it most certainly is, but I think we should all open our eyes for a second and really consider all of the variables at play here.
For several years now, bitcoin has been in a consistent downtrend since it's pump to 20k. The green lines on my chart form what seems to be the descending triangle that BTCUSD has been in since December 2017. Looking at the monthly scale, you can also see the area at approximately 6k that has shown strong support and resistance over the years. If we look at the monthly or even daily candle scale again, you can measure approximately how long BTCUSD maintained a price above that strong support before breaking through to the 3k level in November 2018. Taking this measured length (pink dotted line in my chart) and then applying it to where BTC broke above the ~6k level in approximately May 2019, we can immediately see that we are currently in a position EXTREMELY similar to where BTC was in November 2018. If BTCUSD were to repeat history, with our rough measurement we could see another break through to the 3k level or lower within the next few days or weeks.
Another point to note is that looking at the daily scale, the 50MA and 200MA have formed another 'death cross' (although I do not have that here in my analysis chart).
Furthermore, the downward moving resistance level formed from mid Feb. to the peak which was on March 7, is now being tested and BTC seems to continue being rejected at around the $7400 level.
Another perspective to take is that the recent uptrend that we have been seeing is a giant bearish flag or pennant that will soon break downward.
Lastly, from a 'non technical' TA point of view, COVID-19 is continuing to grow rapidly all around the world while businesses and economies have already shown weakness/suffered. The struggle that the world is facing and will continue to experience for the next few months at least, has and will translate to the markets. Manipulation from big players might make this all seem 'very bullish', but at a time when money is tightening for a lot of people, one can only assume that the bottom isn't in quite yet.
TLDR : There are a lot of factors suggesting that BTCUSD is in for another plunge.
Note
If we do break through the downward resistance, you shouldn't immediately consider that a break to the upside as this all seems to be a large bull trap. If you've opened a short position, just be patient for now.
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