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Bitcoin: Key Indicator Suggests ‘Bull Cycle is Over’ – Should Yo

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Crypto markets are reeling from tariff volatility, which has wiped $200 billion off total market cap and resulted in over $178.72 million in Bitcoin liquidations.

The Bitcoin speck ETF has been weak in recent days. The bearish macroeconomic outlook due to the ongoing trade war is a factor here. The BlackRock speck ETF IBIT (Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF) has seen some inflows over the past two weeks, but most other products have witnessed selling pressure recently. This outlines a bearish short-term sentiment.
The 365-day moving average (MA) of market cap and realized caps was taken to calculate the 365-day MA of Delta Growth. The metric’s decline signals a rising cap with falling market cap, a trend observed since November-December 2024. The failure of capital inflows to drive prices higher indicates a bear market. At the time of analysis, the Delta Growth MA was negative, consistent with bear market conditions. A similar situation occurred before Bitcoin in December 2021 following its previous peak of $69,000 and its subsequent decline. It is predicted that a short-term rally is unlikely and this bearish phase could last for six months. Based on the realized CAP data, the onset of another bear market seems possible.
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