Take the blue pill, BTC!
Updated
Hi there,
welcome to an approach to find the future (right side) in the past (left side) using fractals, fibonacci numbers and historic data of BTC. The historic part lacks of the red scenario making the assumption that BTC took the blue pill back then. Some wicks have been considered noise and replaced by wicks nearby. The whole drawing was made on the 1D chart and contains an error rate, especially on the thick lines of the triangles which have been cloned to work as spacers and have been manually placed and adjusted by zooming in and finding the closest crossing-point of the trend lines. In one case the crossing was in between two data points so consider this as an additional source of error. Adjustments on lower timeframes will reduce the error-rate but that's out of the scope of this approach as the result is good enough.
You will notice some past trends working as support/resistance in the future, or the 0.618 retrace level working as designed. Assuming the price will use the triangles to their maximum extent, a reversal might happen between 02/07/2019 and 04/08/2019. Assuming SEC's decision on ETFs will be made within this period, this might give the needed fuel for a reversal and finally entering the bull-market. There is an infinite number of fractals forming infinite paths on every chart, i've chosen two of them which go low enough by price (maybe not low enough for some of us) and far enough by date. Using other techniques might provide different results.
Sincerely
Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
welcome to an approach to find the future (right side) in the past (left side) using fractals, fibonacci numbers and historic data of BTC. The historic part lacks of the red scenario making the assumption that BTC took the blue pill back then. Some wicks have been considered noise and replaced by wicks nearby. The whole drawing was made on the 1D chart and contains an error rate, especially on the thick lines of the triangles which have been cloned to work as spacers and have been manually placed and adjusted by zooming in and finding the closest crossing-point of the trend lines. In one case the crossing was in between two data points so consider this as an additional source of error. Adjustments on lower timeframes will reduce the error-rate but that's out of the scope of this approach as the result is good enough.
You will notice some past trends working as support/resistance in the future, or the 0.618 retrace level working as designed. Assuming the price will use the triangles to their maximum extent, a reversal might happen between 02/07/2019 and 04/08/2019. Assuming SEC's decision on ETFs will be made within this period, this might give the needed fuel for a reversal and finally entering the bull-market. There is an infinite number of fractals forming infinite paths on every chart, i've chosen two of them which go low enough by price (maybe not low enough for some of us) and far enough by date. Using other techniques might provide different results.
Sincerely
Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.
Note
To add my personal prediction based on my analysis.There is a chance for a sustained reversal at 43xx (0.618 in red) with extremes going down to 37xx (0.786) somewhere around Q2/Q3 2019. Like in 2015 the reversal might not happen immediately after leaving the blue triangle. Another retest of 0.618, with extremes going down to 0.786 might occur (double bottom) in order to see the sustained upwards movement, we're all waiting/praying/hoping for.
But for this we need to see organic market developments being restored. For some months it's more synthetic than organic. I've outlined this in my idea "The missing relation between Volume and Price" that i've posted in the comment section. With synthetic developments dominating the market developments, the future becomes plain unpredictable.
Note
A small correction to make my point of view clear. It was wrongly biased in the first place."For some months it's more synthetic than organic."
should read
"For some months the organic developments have been contaminated with a certain degree of synthetic developments."
AND
"With synthetic developments dominating the market developments, the future becomes plain unpredictable."
should read
"With synthetic developments contaminating the organic developments, the future becomes more and more unpredictable if the degree of synthetic developments will rise, resulting in organic ones to decline."
This two corrections kinda nails it and are my personal bottom lines for previous and current developments on the crypto market.
Note
New indicators coming soon: CoinMarketCap. Finally!---
Hi all, great news! We have added Crypto market capitalization data to our platform, so now you can track it on a chart. We have added the total market cap for all cryptos, the total market cap for all altcoins and dominance (% market cap) of the top 10 /markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/#
We will soon add this data to the indicators, which will allow you to add it to your chart.
---
Source: getsatisfaction.com/tradingview/topics/adding-coinmarketcap-data
Please visit tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/ for a preview.
Cheers,
Eddie
Eddie
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.