Aug 19 and week's overview.
Overview:
The weekend passed without significant
BTC price movement, holding the daily level at 58.2k. On Monday, bulls rallied, managing to push the price up to 58.4k, signaling a potentially bullish week ahead. This renewed buying interest could be attributed to the 
SP500 closing with a strong +1% gain, reminding traders of the generally positive performance of stocks in August, though caution is warranted as September and October tend to be more turbulent. BTC has bounced off the 58.2k level roughly five times in the last eight days. This marks the second correction week after BTC’s 30% crash, with a 23% recovery so far, suggesting a possible rally towards the next weekly level of 63k. Trading within this midrange is risky, as the price could move in either direction. Tight stop-losses (1-1.5%) and modest take-profits (3-3.5%) are advisable.
Global Liquidity: Growing, which is bullish.
Open Interest: Declining, but Monday saw increased capital commitment, indicating short-term bullishness.
Last week ended with a small-bodied red candle, which is neutral to bearish. A similar pattern was seen in late May 2021, where a brief 18% rally was followed by a 30% decline.
Weekly: Range trading with no divergence.
Daily: Monday approached the BB MA, and early Tuesday broke above it, trending upward with a potential 3.7% gain. The current candle is still forming, so it's unclear if this is a genuine breakout or a false move.
4h: No significant changes or divergences.
1h: Increasing volume suggests the current upward trend is strengthening, though the RSI is in overbought territory above 70. If the RSI forms a double top near $63.1, it could be a shorting opportunity.
Alts Relative to BTC: While BTC has broken above the BB MA, altcoins have only cautiously approached it. Retail traders seem to have caught on to Grayscale’s announcement of new trusts for
SUI and TTAO, with TTAO up 17% in the last four days, as we anticipated in our August 11th analysis.
Bull Case: BTC continues to rally towards $62-63k, completing the recovery from the recent crash.
Bear Case: Swing traders may turn bearish and start selling off.
Fear and Greed Index: Rising, currently at 46.14 since August 16th.
Prediction: BTC is likely to rally to 63k, with altcoins likeSUI, 
NEAR, 
APT, 
AR, and TTAO potentially gaining 7-10%.
Opportunities:
NEAR: Approaching its weekly resistance at $4.38, offering a potential 6.45% gain.
FFTM: Has reached its weekly resistance at $0.4.
Also, do you remember DeFi? MMKR and
UNI, which are trading at pre-BTC ETF demand levels despite their strong fundamentals. They are actually earning hard cold cash, proving a use case for crypto: In July MMKR earned fees: 19.7m, revenue of 7.54m; Aave fees 29.4m, revenue of 4.78m; and Uni collecting 47.7m in fees with no revenue provided.
Follow for daily updates.
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
The weekend passed without significant
BTC price movement, holding the daily level at 58.2k. On Monday, bulls rallied, managing to push the price up to 58.4k, signaling a potentially bullish week ahead. This renewed buying interest could be attributed to the SP500 closing with a strong +1% gain, reminding traders of the generally positive performance of stocks in August, though caution is warranted as September and October tend to be more turbulent. BTC has bounced off the 58.2k level roughly five times in the last eight days. This marks the second correction week after BTC’s 30% crash, with a 23% recovery so far, suggesting a possible rally towards the next weekly level of 63k. Trading within this midrange is risky, as the price could move in either direction. Tight stop-losses (1-1.5%) and modest take-profits (3-3.5%) are advisable.Global Liquidity: Growing, which is bullish.
Open Interest: Declining, but Monday saw increased capital commitment, indicating short-term bullishness.
Last week ended with a small-bodied red candle, which is neutral to bearish. A similar pattern was seen in late May 2021, where a brief 18% rally was followed by a 30% decline.
Weekly: Range trading with no divergence.
Daily: Monday approached the BB MA, and early Tuesday broke above it, trending upward with a potential 3.7% gain. The current candle is still forming, so it's unclear if this is a genuine breakout or a false move.
4h: No significant changes or divergences.
1h: Increasing volume suggests the current upward trend is strengthening, though the RSI is in overbought territory above 70. If the RSI forms a double top near $63.1, it could be a shorting opportunity.
Alts Relative to BTC: While BTC has broken above the BB MA, altcoins have only cautiously approached it. Retail traders seem to have caught on to Grayscale’s announcement of new trusts for
SUI and TTAO, with TTAO up 17% in the last four days, as we anticipated in our August 11th analysis.Bull Case: BTC continues to rally towards $62-63k, completing the recovery from the recent crash.
Bear Case: Swing traders may turn bearish and start selling off.
Fear and Greed Index: Rising, currently at 46.14 since August 16th.
Prediction: BTC is likely to rally to 63k, with altcoins like
SUI, NEAR, APT, AR, and TTAO potentially gaining 7-10%.Opportunities:
NEAR: Approaching its weekly resistance at $4.38, offering a potential 6.45% gain.FFTM: Has reached its weekly resistance at $0.4.
Also, do you remember DeFi? MMKR and
UNI, which are trading at pre-BTC ETF demand levels despite their strong fundamentals. They are actually earning hard cold cash, proving a use case for crypto: In July MMKR earned fees: 19.7m, revenue of 7.54m; Aave fees 29.4m, revenue of 4.78m; and Uni collecting 47.7m in fees with no revenue provided.Follow for daily updates.
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Follow for daily updates.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.