Long

Silver and BTC Lagging Correlation

Updated

Some interesting dynamics are coming to light about a precious metals and Crypto price relationship. This coupled in with an ever increasing negative correlation between US equities and Crypto's since October (after >2% movements up or down in US equities). Some people argue POW is dead and that bitcoin will go to $0. I personally think that BTC will always hold a place as a legacy currency used to purchase all other digital assets via cryptocurrency exchanges and there seems to be no other way around this channel into the foreseeable future. Thus I am of the opinion that we will see a return to the mean in the price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, specifically around the $6000 mark, as people deleverage out of US equities into safe haven assets. Safe haven status has been exemplified in cryptocurrencies, as witnessed in Venezuela, Turkey and Indonesia. Hence they should be considered as such given any additional corrections in US equities heading further into 2019.

Looking at the S&P 500 it seems fairly obvious that further declines will happen off the 200 Day MVA around about $2,700, which should occur within the next 2 weeks. This may trigger a flight to safety into BTC and other cryptocurrencies such as XRP and we may see the BTC price back at the $6000 level, as well as further increases in precious metals.

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Looks like prediction has a partial confirmation. Possible fractal bottom + consolidation and near end to bear market.

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S&P Halting around the 200 MVA. Plunge protection team lead by Steve Mnuchin are having a rough time manipulating the market higher in light of the worst retail sales figures and car loan repayments in over a decade.

I expect a selloff in US equities from here, and a potential bullrun in crypto's either lead by BTC or XRP, given SBI's digital asset exchange opening on the 31st of march as well as R3's integration with SWIFT GPI.

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Don't be surprised if there is a false breakout above the 200 MVA by the S&P, it will be short lived, manipulated and only prolonging the inevitable sell-off. The sell-off in US equities, initially, won't be too significant. I'm expecting a slight retrace from the 200 MVA and further consolidation followed by another major decline.

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This is what I see playing out, the PPT only have so much power. We are still going through Quantitative Tightening despite the market pricing in QE 4. The FED is expected to sell off $30 billion tomorrow, so this plays in perfectly with with my TA.

zmassey

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