These are the setups I've taken pains to describe guys. You want to make your buy at the height of maximum pain. Everyone that purchased in when price was wicking down is for the most part happy. Shorts have spiked and longs have fallen off, indicating that retail thought that price was going to go down. Now this is not the complete full height of pain capitulation that I want to see to signal that the market is truly turning around, but that coiling low volatility precedes high volatility, and this is what we get. This is exactly that I said I expected to see for those who watched my live stream last night, and I talked about exactly how to play it and why I was in and not in BTC right now.
Ok, we definitely wanted to buy during these long red candles. Clearly you could have gotten in at a better price had you bought on the second one, but just like I've been explaining with Sky sometimes you're going to have more supply to distribute then you anticipated. All you can do is take the statistically most favorable position, which is to go long on panic. I don't know if we're looking at a set-up to full capitulation here, so for me this is a low leveraged, low capital trade. 2% of my portfolio, but I am long to 6336.
We saw price come down and test the .786 Fib level, as long as we stay above that level we look for price to retrace upwards. If we close below the .786 however, we're looking for price to continue trending lower. Again, I do expect that we will see a much more dramatic move than this before this is all over. I am not reccomending that if you're fully in USD you convert it all over and go all in on BTC long right now, I think we'll get rekt. What I am suggesting, is that if you are in the market, a long target of 6336 is not crazy.
Ok, we definitely wanted to buy during these long red candles. Clearly you could have gotten in at a better price had you bought on the second one, but just like I've been explaining with Sky sometimes you're going to have more supply to distribute then you anticipated. All you can do is take the statistically most favorable position, which is to go long on panic. I don't know if we're looking at a set-up to full capitulation here, so for me this is a low leveraged, low capital trade. 2% of my portfolio, but I am long to 6336.
We saw price come down and test the .786 Fib level, as long as we stay above that level we look for price to retrace upwards. If we close below the .786 however, we're looking for price to continue trending lower. Again, I do expect that we will see a much more dramatic move than this before this is all over. I am not reccomending that if you're fully in USD you convert it all over and go all in on BTC long right now, I think we'll get rekt. What I am suggesting, is that if you are in the market, a long target of 6336 is not crazy.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.