Short

Updated

Bitcoin's REAL bottom: A noob's idea OR a well executed plan ?

We will get the answer around Feb 14th.

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Letters look smaller and of-centered compared to how they were before i posted.
Drag the price axis to read the text easier.

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Nevermind, i will do it for your convenience.

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Not a fortune teller, but lets say it might happen just a little earlier. How about 11th - 12th depending on your timezone. I think it lines more with what was thinking of initially. But then again, no one can guess the time...

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Still bullish short term.

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There are a few possibilities for the wave counting. I used the most bullish one because i dont wanna be biased.
If this is the correct one, wave 4 entered in to territory of wave 1 and we will have an ending diagonal 5th. I will update it later with the most popular alternatives.

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5th wave has to be smaller than the 3rd one for this count to be valid since the 1st one is the bigger.

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Ok, sorry if i confused a few of you, this is the bullish count that im using right now.
But this is one of the possibilities, not the correct one.

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It has a real attraction to the lines. :D
If it wants to remain bullish, now is the chance.

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It needs to bounce again here, Shorts are increased by 4.5% in the last hour.

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Be careful if you are using stop-loss. Its acting very aggressive compared to a few alts im keeping an eye on.

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We might see some uptrend here.

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Its border line bearish. Or some smart money trying to trigger stop losses.

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It needs to go up here, or else you know the outcome...

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Patience. Either way, long term news are still bearish. Short term, MAYBE bullish.

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Last chance.

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Please, convience me that this is not manipulated. Give me your best shot.

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I place the fibs EXACTLY. At every little cent. Do you see something interesting??
The close of the lowest candle is 7543.28 .

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Bitcoin is BEARISH and will drop. The initial idea is VERY VERY VALID.
Those are the targets for some final profit. HOLD at your own risk.

!!!!!! NO FINANCIAL ADVICE !!!!!!

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THIS IS ANOTHER ALTERNATIVE.
Big red ABC inside the circles. C is 0.618 so it qualifies the rules for the potential last top. Either way, we are going down sooner or later.
The targets above are speculative and will be valid ONLY if we make a higher high that the big red C.

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Ignore the internal enumering and focus only on the big yellow ones. To those of you that are counting it like that and expect it to be bullish and expect wave 5 to be shorter than wave 3, its wrong. Wave 4 cannot retrace that much, only wave 2. Yes, there is a slight bullish count still in play but we need more data.

Im still bearish, but that doesnt mean that we cant hit 9k and 10k. It means that we eventially fall down.

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Also , i had made a wrong labeling in my initial post that noone saw it yet.
Target is still the same just wrong labeling, i was in a hurry to post it that day.

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This is the scenario with the most probabilities. ABC can be replaced by 1 2 3 and later 4 5. Targets are the same for both.
Invalidation level of bearish scenario is around 12k ( where the big 2 is in the above scenario or the old (b) in the original post ). I would say its "safe" to trade, as safe as that can be of course. There is no confirmed reversal YET!

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Its still 50-50 but i feel like that all this is a part of a bigger play. As FUD comes always in the right time to drop the price, good news appear in the right time to raise the price. BE VERY CAREFUL !

If you are trading -I am- always keep an eye on the BTCUSDSHORTS. ALWAYS!

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Bitcoin is approaching critical area.

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There is a little DIV on the Slow stoch at 15 and 30 min candles and shorts have been raised. Definately not a good time to trade because, we might see a down trend.

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Finex chart.

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Moving inside the triangle in 3s ( confirmation by RSI). But i must warn you that its hunting stop losses! Be extra carefull if you trade.
I guess it will peak around 8.5k-ish and have a pullback. Usually its between .5 and .618 depending on momentum. But expect a pull back even at .786. Also triangles appear mostly in waves 2 and B. So it doenst look like an uptrend to me. Major resistance ahead after 9.2k area so expect a retest of 6k in the near future.

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In waves 4 and B ***

my bad

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It retraced only at 0.5 which indicates bullish momentum. Strong volume.
There might be some profit taking inside the box.

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Bull run or the perfect Invers H&S bull trap?

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Not hitting my lowest target by 4$ makes me think that it still has some juice left.
This inverse H&S is too good of a trap for not being taken advantage of. But we may have also started the down trend. Everything is possible atm. If it makes a higher high it will enter the target zone and maybe the danger zone later on depending on momentum.

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It seems like its going for a retest of the 9k area. Finally! After 14 hours of the last update. I ill update with target after it tries and retraces. Should be pretty much the same like the last targets.

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First resistance for now is at 8630. Remember that it might have already started the down trend and its just retracing higher before the begining of the 3rd wave downwards.

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It seems like the recent bump was caused by a small inverse H&S. It s a little over extended for now, so expect a little pullback and it might create an even bigger inverse H&S.

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Also i believe that the down trend has started, and this is just a wave 2 pullback.

I dont see it making a new higher high and peak around 8.6-8.8 .
But i might be wrong! I have 2 counts for the waves and following the one with the higher probabilities - IMO - for now.

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Its inside the recharge zone but dont rush just yet, it had a sudden drop and 2 more subwaves are missing, we might see a bounce at 8k.

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Remember that breaking down the 7.9k line will confirm the H&S and will cause the price to drop by a lot. Its approaching a critical point so keep your eyes on price action and volume before making any decision.

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Sorry that i didnt update this earlier, i had to lock some positions on alts. Seems like its going up and heading for the resistance line, currently on subwave 3.

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It got through my target area and it seems like it has some fuel left. I dont see it having enough for breaking the neckline tho. But its Bitcoin! You never know!

The only positive thing i can think of is the SHORTS being decreased by A LOT. If you are long, keep an eye on those for a potential bull trap.

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I have been watching some other ideas and the number of people that rely solely on MACD is unbelievable. There is no jack of all trades. I personally use it very rarely, and only for larger trends and focus mostly on the histogram.

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A little messy, but this is a sum up of my thoughs atm.

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Price trading at a critical level again! Potential h&s is formed or about to be formed.
If wave 4 enters to territory of wave 1 it will confirm the ending diagonal ( rising wedge).
Its still dangerous to trade at this point because it can drop further down. In case it goes up and you wanna trade, i have highlighted the targets inside the boxes. Dont fall for the bait of inverse h&s. Way too much resistance up there and the physcological round number of 9k.

Understand the risks of the trade and dont blindly follow my targets, you are responsible for your own actions.

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Battle of the neckline and the psycological level of 9k. It doesnt get any better than that!.

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We might see some consolidation at this area, dont expect something big tho, the down trend was faster than the up trend so i think we would contiue lower again in the future.

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Expecting an end on this at about 9k.

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Dont FOMO and always see the bigger picture.

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It appears there are some talks about DLT and blockchain today, in case you wanna watch/hear it here is the link. Shevelev posted it earlier on his BTC idea.

youtube.com/watch?v=VptsprY6qPI

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Also, i would have to revise my idea. This whole correction looks like an WXY correction. Reversal is not confirmed yet, Y doenst always end the correction, it can fail again for 2 more waves down (XZ).

I will try to keep this updated for targets while its "mooning". :D

Thank you for the 2k views!

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If bears win in the end after reaching 10k expect a painful drop, since this bigger wave (iv) has entered to territoryy of the first one (i).

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Beware if you are trading this or other coins.
Idk what kind of news is causing all this since i have been pretty busy this week and have catch up with the news, but this movement is way too forced.

The general idea is that if it finds SOLID support at10k, it will aim for the other end of the channel which should be around 12k.

I would probably come up with a new idea on Friday or Sunday once i see whats going on with this big boy.

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Updated targets. if it retraces less, its on Bull mode and will aim higher than the red box.

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Still in consolidation.

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It can also peak at 11.3k for a 1:1 ratio for A:C

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Too many bulls on Bitcoin, long wicks to the down side and almost none on the upside.

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Not really impressed on the break out volume, probably stop buy orders that wanna ride the last wave up.

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Reversal is not confirmed yet since it didnt invalidate wave (ii) @ 12k.
You can check my latest idea for updates.

BTC/USD - Beginning of the new bull run or deeper correction ?

Acel

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Acel

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