Bitcoin - 25k USD taken out and what is next?!
Updated
Over the past few weeks, despite the numerous calls for the bottom and trend reversal, we kept our bearish stance on Bitcoin. Today it has plunged below 25 000 USD, hitting our price target and constituting a new low. We continue to maintain a bearish stance on Bitcoin. As a result, we would like to update the short-term price target for BTCUSD to 23 000 USD and the medium-term price target to 20 000 USD. Our views are drawn from bearish fundamental and technical factors, which are detailed below.
Fundamental factors
On 15th June 2022, the FOMC meeting is set to take place. We expect higher interest rates to impact the cryptocurrency market negatively. Furthermore, we expect the same from the economic tightening combined with reducing the balance sheet that belongs to the FED. Therefore, we foresee more pressure from the weakening stock market (to which BTCUSD is highly correlated) and a lack of appetite for risk assets. In addition to that, we view increasing scrutiny into cryptocurrencies (by the SEC and other governmental entities) as very harmful to the sector. In our opinion, the upcoming regulation after the fallout Luna stablecoin token will lead to an even tighter market.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows two recent bearish breakouts leading to the formation of a new low in the price of BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
A volume tells a story of increasing selling pressure.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows additional simple support and resistance levels.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Fundamental factors
On 15th June 2022, the FOMC meeting is set to take place. We expect higher interest rates to impact the cryptocurrency market negatively. Furthermore, we expect the same from the economic tightening combined with reducing the balance sheet that belongs to the FED. Therefore, we foresee more pressure from the weakening stock market (to which BTCUSD is highly correlated) and a lack of appetite for risk assets. In addition to that, we view increasing scrutiny into cryptocurrencies (by the SEC and other governmental entities) as very harmful to the sector. In our opinion, the upcoming regulation after the fallout Luna stablecoin token will lead to an even tighter market.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows two recent bearish breakouts leading to the formation of a new low in the price of BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.02
A volume tells a story of increasing selling pressure.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is very bearish.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows additional simple support and resistance levels.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trade closed: target reached
Our medium-term price target of 23 000 USD was reached. We change the medium-term price target of 20 000 USD to the short-term.
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