BTC Weekly Outlook (FA & TA)
Updated
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Our mid term bias remains on the bearish side. However, given how manipulated this market is, I don't think a major drop is going to happen when retail margin traders are overly short. Fake outs are necessary for the short term to lure retail sentiment onto the bull side.
Key technical:
1. Strong channel & EMA resistance above
2. RSI is meeting both MAs resistance and key resistance since May
3. Daily MACD down crossed
4. Key support at 8.8k before bottom of channel (we still get asked quite often of the "current rising triangle". Support/resistance work mainly because traders believe they do. So high likelihood BTC will bounce off of here to the upside.)
Does institutional accumulation mean we are bullish?
The short answer: short term – no; long term – absolutely.
As most of you may already know, Grayscale has seen its best quarter in Q2 since inception, raising 900M for its crypto products. As a result, there has been lots of bullish talk around how new money and institutional interest in the space will push us to ATH.
However, just as there are retail investors and retail traders, there are two types of institutional players as well: traders and investors. Grayscale, even though as the biggest institutional player in the space, focuses on offering crypto exposure through traditional investment vehicles, and the products are investment oriented. This is very different from actively managed crypto funds which are performance oriented. With crypto being a space of investors dominating the entire BTC supply, and speculators dominating daily moved BTCs, the differentiation has to be made about which news drives the long-term underlying BTC value (mean reversion), and which news drives the short-term price action.
From my perspective, the Grayscale news is a confirmation of BTC long-term bullishness, but by no means is an indication of us breaking out of the current “triangle” (as many believes) to the upside. Investor oriented behaviors take a long time to realize (we dropped from 6k to 3k, and dropped through the COVID black Thursday when investors are bullish), and as shared last week, the institutional traders are still bearish for the mid term.
Hope this helps clearing some confusions out there.
Are you bullish or bearish on BTC? Do you agree with our analysis? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
=====================================================
🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis!
=====================================================
Our mid term bias remains on the bearish side. However, given how manipulated this market is, I don't think a major drop is going to happen when retail margin traders are overly short. Fake outs are necessary for the short term to lure retail sentiment onto the bull side.
Key technical:
1. Strong channel & EMA resistance above
2. RSI is meeting both MAs resistance and key resistance since May
3. Daily MACD down crossed
4. Key support at 8.8k before bottom of channel (we still get asked quite often of the "current rising triangle". Support/resistance work mainly because traders believe they do. So high likelihood BTC will bounce off of here to the upside.)
Does institutional accumulation mean we are bullish?
The short answer: short term – no; long term – absolutely.
As most of you may already know, Grayscale has seen its best quarter in Q2 since inception, raising 900M for its crypto products. As a result, there has been lots of bullish talk around how new money and institutional interest in the space will push us to ATH.
However, just as there are retail investors and retail traders, there are two types of institutional players as well: traders and investors. Grayscale, even though as the biggest institutional player in the space, focuses on offering crypto exposure through traditional investment vehicles, and the products are investment oriented. This is very different from actively managed crypto funds which are performance oriented. With crypto being a space of investors dominating the entire BTC supply, and speculators dominating daily moved BTCs, the differentiation has to be made about which news drives the long-term underlying BTC value (mean reversion), and which news drives the short-term price action.
From my perspective, the Grayscale news is a confirmation of BTC long-term bullishness, but by no means is an indication of us breaking out of the current “triangle” (as many believes) to the upside. Investor oriented behaviors take a long time to realize (we dropped from 6k to 3k, and dropped through the COVID black Thursday when investors are bullish), and as shared last week, the institutional traders are still bearish for the mid term.
Hope this helps clearing some confusions out there.
Are you bullish or bearish on BTC? Do you agree with our analysis? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
=====================================================
🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis!
=====================================================
Note
A short-term short is upon us as we are finishing a 5 motive wave structure to the upside.
Note
Both bullish and bearish Elliot wave counts (zoomed out):
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