Bitcoin's mid-term analysis you should consider
Updated
Here I present my POV on Bitcoin's mid-tem action with a confluence of bearish signals seen on the daily chart.
Even though Bitcoin is showing an impressive bullish strenght, it is also leaving some negative traces behind. Let's take a look at the potential worrying aspects:
These multiple confluences should make you - at least - reconsider any overbullish prediction for the following weeks regarding Bitcoin. I'm not saying a correction here would mean the bull cycle is over, I think we're far from that, but corrections are healthy for a bigger price development and we have not seen many along the way so far.
>> However, I don't think the breakout would occur right now. Considering Dollar's inflation with all the bad decisions coming from the FED, I believe we would reach new highs before that, probably touching the upper line of the wedge once more, setting a new ATH @ ~70k, and then starting the potential greater correction of this bullrun.
If it happens, the probable worst case scenario is already on the chart, being the lowest low of the wedge, around 31k, supported by the VPVR.
But if we actually end up breaking the wedge downwards, I'll update this idea with the possible targets and support levels we may reach.
Even though Bitcoin is showing an impressive bullish strenght, it is also leaving some negative traces behind. Let's take a look at the potential worrying aspects:
- Rising wedge formation (magenta dashed lines): this pattern has a 60% probability of a downward breakout, according to Bulkowski
- Volume trending downwards (indicated by the orange arrow): this trend reinforces the wedge pattern; we should expect a big move soon
- Elliott wave (green wave): this impulse wave is usually followed by an ABC corrective wave
- Bearish divergence (magenta lines): the price is forming a strong bearish divergence on the RSI since the beginning of the the rising wedge
- Extreme greed: this Bitcoin's bull cycle has shown a lot of greed and FOMO, much more than previous cycles, as seen by the very agressive inclination on bigger time frame charts
- Stimulus checks: even though the fact that many people is putting their $1400 stimulus in Bitcoin is good, this is also very attractive for whales looking for huge liquidations any time soon
These multiple confluences should make you - at least - reconsider any overbullish prediction for the following weeks regarding Bitcoin. I'm not saying a correction here would mean the bull cycle is over, I think we're far from that, but corrections are healthy for a bigger price development and we have not seen many along the way so far.
>> However, I don't think the breakout would occur right now. Considering Dollar's inflation with all the bad decisions coming from the FED, I believe we would reach new highs before that, probably touching the upper line of the wedge once more, setting a new ATH @ ~70k, and then starting the potential greater correction of this bullrun.
If it happens, the probable worst case scenario is already on the chart, being the lowest low of the wedge, around 31k, supported by the VPVR.
But if we actually end up breaking the wedge downwards, I'll update this idea with the possible targets and support levels we may reach.
Trade active
It broke!I'm flipping bearish now, let's ride this mountain down.
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RSI's daily wedge is broken too!If Bitcoin doesn't hold at 50k, we should expect a move to the 42k area. This would be the 0,382 Fibonacci level.
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Looks like it's altseason now. And here comes something interesting:We've had an altseason just after the 2017's Bitcoin top.
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We may be forming an ending diagonal on the 5th wave!Everything looks as expected so far, each wave with its correspondent subwaves. Check it out below:
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Pi Cycle top has just flashed... One more bearish signal for the listBitcoin is for sure showing some weakness. Stay aware!
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There we go... Rising wedge breakout!WOW that was a large candle, so I'm expecting a retest of the wedge around 59k and then further down.
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One more: we had a MACD cross in the weekly time frame while the RSI divergence is still unbroken. Expect bears to reign for some weeks now...
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There we have it. A huge volume candle, as expected; and red, also as expected due to the numerous indicators shown in this analysis.Let's see how it reacts from now on.
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Remember: considering a bearish scenario doesn't mean bitcoin hate. A trader must trade charts, not personal feelings.
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