Are we in peak BTC? where could it fall or rise to?
Updated
It's been a while since I posted, especially on the long-term view of Bitcoin. If you want to know what I've been up to, I will provide you with an update at the bottom of this post.
As much as I want to believe in Bitcoin going to the moon 🚀, we must be realistic and understand the dynamics at play. Dynamics have changed significantly since we saw the top a few years ago. Let's reflect on the past for a moment:
During the last bull run of 2020-2021:
All the above adds to justify a bubble and why we so the massive crypto bull market where altcoins were going x300-1000 regularly.
What has changed since then, what is today like:
This list isn't a strong bull case, is it? The tech/AI bubble might give it some legs. Also, overall equity markets are going up, and I expect a continuation of that. But could BTC double in price? It seems doubtful.
Lastly, let's take a look at the chart. What do you see? Price with a curve to it, where the curve seems to top out in the range of 80-120k. Could we have already seen the top?
Now, let's also think about why retail holds onto Crypto. Is it to make x2 gain after 4 years or x10-100 after 4 years? What would they do when they realize BTC isn't going anywhere and that they aren't going to get rich?
I remain a bull because, based on my Reversion Zone system (98% probability levels), I expect the price to return to at least the 68k level. So, I will be looking for an entry soon at around 62k, but I will not be chasing extreme highs, which many gurus predict might be impossible. We need massive pressure/energy to break this top, which comes from having enough people holding and an inflow of demand. Perhaps Trump being in office will be the next trigger, but we are months away. I expect sideways to a downward drift over the next two months.
Feel free to ask me any questions. I'm happy to elaborate and answer the questions I've asked, and I'm also curious to hear your thoughts.
Now that I've wrapped up my multi-year Reversion theory project, I will provide more frequent updates. Subscribe for these updates.
Now for an update on a personal/professional level.
It's been a long journey in trading, and I'm happy to say that I started the 2024 year as a full-time trader after making a breakthrough in my R&D project. It's been a long journey, with many failures along the way. After testing 100s of systems and over 10k hours of writing code and testing, what ultimately worked is a straightforward concept that I call Reversion Zones. I will write about this concept in an education post later. Conceptually, it's very simple; it's difficult to tell how far fear can take the price. It's also difficult to say how far greed can take the price, but within these extremes, there is always the center or the edge of the center. This is why trendlines work; this is why channels exist. I've proven without a doubt that this is the only truth.
Subscribe and join me on this journey of massive accumulation.
Green pips to all 🤑
As much as I want to believe in Bitcoin going to the moon 🚀, we must be realistic and understand the dynamics at play. Dynamics have changed significantly since we saw the top a few years ago. Let's reflect on the past for a moment:
During the last bull run of 2020-2021:
- Free money, trillions injected into the market
- Retail traders with free checks from the government
- Retail traders with a lot of free time to stare at screens and watch the crypto shows
- Concepts of HODL, to the moon became a household term
- Everything was going up, aka massive inflation...
All the above adds to justify a bubble and why we so the massive crypto bull market where altcoins were going x300-1000 regularly.
What has changed since then, what is today like:
- Households with tighter budgets, less spending
- Retail traders are struggling to catch a big move
- BTC ETH ETFs provide more liquidity and price stability; easier entry means also easier exit
- Tech/AI bubble
- Deflation, or at least policy/attempt to fight inflation
This list isn't a strong bull case, is it? The tech/AI bubble might give it some legs. Also, overall equity markets are going up, and I expect a continuation of that. But could BTC double in price? It seems doubtful.
Lastly, let's take a look at the chart. What do you see? Price with a curve to it, where the curve seems to top out in the range of 80-120k. Could we have already seen the top?
Now, let's also think about why retail holds onto Crypto. Is it to make x2 gain after 4 years or x10-100 after 4 years? What would they do when they realize BTC isn't going anywhere and that they aren't going to get rich?
I remain a bull because, based on my Reversion Zone system (98% probability levels), I expect the price to return to at least the 68k level. So, I will be looking for an entry soon at around 62k, but I will not be chasing extreme highs, which many gurus predict might be impossible. We need massive pressure/energy to break this top, which comes from having enough people holding and an inflow of demand. Perhaps Trump being in office will be the next trigger, but we are months away. I expect sideways to a downward drift over the next two months.
Feel free to ask me any questions. I'm happy to elaborate and answer the questions I've asked, and I'm also curious to hear your thoughts.
Now that I've wrapped up my multi-year Reversion theory project, I will provide more frequent updates. Subscribe for these updates.
Now for an update on a personal/professional level.
It's been a long journey in trading, and I'm happy to say that I started the 2024 year as a full-time trader after making a breakthrough in my R&D project. It's been a long journey, with many failures along the way. After testing 100s of systems and over 10k hours of writing code and testing, what ultimately worked is a straightforward concept that I call Reversion Zones. I will write about this concept in an education post later. Conceptually, it's very simple; it's difficult to tell how far fear can take the price. It's also difficult to say how far greed can take the price, but within these extremes, there is always the center or the edge of the center. This is why trendlines work; this is why channels exist. I've proven without a doubt that this is the only truth.
Subscribe and join me on this journey of massive accumulation.
Green pips to all 🤑
Note
A few people brought up some good points, and here is my response.Gold vs. BTC:
The gold market cap is about $16 trillion, while BTC is currently at $1.2 trillion. We all know BTC is not gold, but it's interesting to compare their market sizes and potential growth. Could BTC capture more of the market share? I think getting to 2.2T is possible over the next 2yrs, but beyond that, it doesn't sound reasonable.
Rate Cuts and Political Factors:
Rate Cuts: A big "if" for this year. I don't see inflation going anywhere soon.
Political Influence: Trump’s potential return is uncertain. The odds are close to 50/50 now. Before Kamala, Trump was a certain win but the odds are shifting and regardless of how Kamala wins, the potential is there.
Global Conflicts:
Ukraine War: Similar to the Syrian war, which started in 2011 and is still ongoing. I don't expect the Ukraine war to end until a major global shift, perhaps around 2030.
Israel-Hamas Conflict: I'm not sure how much this impacts crypto markets. Generally, war tends to be good for markets because it leads to more money being spent and printed. The US has injected $170-200B, which, through fractional reserve lending, creates $2-4 trillion more now with the reserve rate set to 0%.
Market Trends:
I believe the markets will continue their current trend, with 2026 being a correctional year for all. BTC moving from 60k to 120k is plausible, just as the S&P could go from $500 to $700. However, BTC's bubble-like behavior seems to be fading, and I'm now thinking of other strategies to allocate funds.
Note
BTC seems to be traveling to the Reversion zone area at around 53.7k. BTC and the cryptos could make one more pump before crashing with the equity markets. We could see a "sell the news" event soon after the rate cuts. Today for some of the alt-coins like SOL, reached the bottom reversion zones from the last lower low of the correctional move, but BTC is lagging.
Note
BTC once again on it's way to the strong resistance area of 71k
The price may break through resistance soon if the current bullish momentum continues. Based on the US equity markets, liquidity injection from China, and global liquidity climbing up, I expect BTC to break through and reach an all-time high. However, BTC might not be able to break 80k this year.
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