If you ever grew up traveling by train, you will know the feeling. You fall asleep, wait for the station to be called, and you wake up at the terminal station. Been there, done that back in a Parisian subway.
When I defined the targets (and for those having followed my dead-on hits should know that we go way (up) back, it has been a ride. In the more recent analyses and forecasts, I defined a bottom value as low-probability, namely: 384.65. Well, wake up lonely passenger, because as far as my predictive analysis went, this was supposed to be the least probable level of reversal (highest was defined @ 425.37, but bears kept banging holes in the bottom of the honey barrel, sinking the cryptos to ever so cryptic levels.
As I write this, price has recoiled a bit, and I would need a bit more time and data to analyze the strength of current bears versus the potential of a rally from this level. However, without altering the original analysis, this was expected to be a "bottom barrel" level from which to expect a rallying in price.
Hence, for the time being, I will move the indicator from SHORT to NEUTRAL, while price unwinds. Whether a relief rally occurs, or a true and honest departure to the topside burgeons from here has yet to be defined. Let's price unwind and keep the original forecast in mind.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive analysis & Forecasting
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