A chart for the bulls: A $BTC bounce to $54-58k? My thoughts.
Updated
In my last analysis here's what I said:
"Now I think the most likely path from here is for BTC to fall to the 30k range -- either stopping at
39K, or potentially testing the 34k region in the worst case scenario on this next move.
Then, I think even if we find support at39K in January and if BTC bounces higher from there (even up to the mid 50k range or that 57k resistance), there's a decent chance that BTC bounces rolls over, forming a head and shoulders pattern and breaks down further to 
29K-34k sometime in February or March before it finds some mid term relief."
Where we're at now:
I think that bounce scenario is about to play out. BTC fell to the39K support level, and it looks to have found support there. I think the most likely path from here is that BTC will fall over the coming days - week to retest that level as support (this will also scare people thinking BTC is rolling over). If support holds at 39K-40k (which I'm anticipating), I think we'll see a strong bounce up to $54-58k before the end of January (with the possibility of an extension up to the 60k resistance.
HOWEVER, don't get too bullish there. I think this is just a bounce in a larger downtrend structure. I am still macro bearish. If we reject at those levels (anywhere from $54-60k), it just sets up a lower high on the weekly timeframe which would take us lower in Feb/March.
I still think we see lower BTC prices, therefore, this would be a trade for me. I am not buying for the long term. If that lower high is set, then I think we'll end up at
25K-34k after this move.
"Now I think the most likely path from here is for BTC to fall to the 30k range -- either stopping at
39K, or potentially testing the 34k region in the worst case scenario on this next move.Then, I think even if we find support at
39K in January and if BTC bounces higher from there (even up to the mid 50k range or that 57k resistance), there's a decent chance that BTC bounces rolls over, forming a head and shoulders pattern and breaks down further to 29K-34k sometime in February or March before it finds some mid term relief."Where we're at now:
I think that bounce scenario is about to play out. BTC fell to the
39K support level, and it looks to have found support there. I think the most likely path from here is that BTC will fall over the coming days - week to retest that level as support (this will also scare people thinking BTC is rolling over). If support holds at 39K-40k (which I'm anticipating), I think we'll see a strong bounce up to $54-58k before the end of January (with the possibility of an extension up to the 60k resistance.HOWEVER, don't get too bullish there. I think this is just a bounce in a larger downtrend structure. I am still macro bearish. If we reject at those levels (anywhere from $54-60k), it just sets up a lower high on the weekly timeframe which would take us lower in Feb/March.
I still think we see lower BTC prices, therefore, this would be a trade for me. I am not buying for the long term. If that lower high is set, then I think we'll end up at
25K-34k after this move.Comment
In terms of timing of this move: There's a high probability that it takes longer than what I outlined here. I think the move will likely start on the 24th and probably won't play out until February.Let's see.
Comment
I just got a strong sell signal on the 10hr timeframe. The last time this happened, price fell from 50k to 
46K then to 40k. I just wanted to say this because as I said above, price needs that
39K support for this bullish idea to be valid. If not, the previous idea is the one to follow: 
It's pretty much a coin flip at this point as to which direction we go in. I'm still in cash waiting for the
39K support to hold or break before I take a position. Let's see.Comment
Just an FYI, I'm now leaning towards the bearish outcome based on what I'm seeing on the charts. Should know the direction in the next week or soComment
We should see a bounce higher here. Not sure if we make it all the way up to the top of the range though. Needs to break the $46-47k resistance first.Comment
New idea: 
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