New local range?
Updated
Charts a bit messy so here are the key areas:
1. VRVP (Visible Range Volume Profile) value area (VA) is set to 50% for our local area. Price is currently trading on the VAL line (Value Area Low) and looks like it wants to break below.
2. Fib extensions give our three targets (T1, T2, T3)
3. Bollinger Band fib levels 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.764 line up with the red Andrew’s Pitchfork (Inside Pitchfork variant)
4. Andrew’s Pitchfork points two and three correspond with the highlighted Pivot Points. This defines our expected channel until the next major move.
5. Finally we have the blue pitchfork that defines the extremes on either side of price action. I’ve left it in but it's not part of this TA.
I’ve recently redrawn the red pitchfork after that last Pivot High where we entered a short position in my previous BTCUSD chart (towards the bottom of the post).
You’ll notice how the pitchfork's Upper Line (UL), Median Line (ML) and Lower Line (LL), as well as the quartiles (dashed lines) line up with the Bollinger Band Fibonacci levels. This is the best fit I could find for fib levels with the local range.
You’ll also notice that the upper quartile corresponds with BB fib 0.5 and the 50% VAL line. This area right here, right now, will be a good test for this setup. We can expect price to make a small move up. Like last time, we hope for a wick up and another safe entry into a short position.
If the red pitchfork and fib levels prove valid, the PNL shows a good short entry (@ 20.4k) that should have no problem meeting its first target. We can expect a bounce at 17.5k, and a lower high somewhere around the upper quartile of the red pitchfork.
Like always, I will be updating this post in correspondence with new information.
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice and I hold no positions.
GL;HT
1. VRVP (Visible Range Volume Profile) value area (VA) is set to 50% for our local area. Price is currently trading on the VAL line (Value Area Low) and looks like it wants to break below.
2. Fib extensions give our three targets (T1, T2, T3)
3. Bollinger Band fib levels 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.764 line up with the red Andrew’s Pitchfork (Inside Pitchfork variant)
4. Andrew’s Pitchfork points two and three correspond with the highlighted Pivot Points. This defines our expected channel until the next major move.
5. Finally we have the blue pitchfork that defines the extremes on either side of price action. I’ve left it in but it's not part of this TA.
I’ve recently redrawn the red pitchfork after that last Pivot High where we entered a short position in my previous BTCUSD chart (towards the bottom of the post).
You’ll notice how the pitchfork's Upper Line (UL), Median Line (ML) and Lower Line (LL), as well as the quartiles (dashed lines) line up with the Bollinger Band Fibonacci levels. This is the best fit I could find for fib levels with the local range.
You’ll also notice that the upper quartile corresponds with BB fib 0.5 and the 50% VAL line. This area right here, right now, will be a good test for this setup. We can expect price to make a small move up. Like last time, we hope for a wick up and another safe entry into a short position.
If the red pitchfork and fib levels prove valid, the PNL shows a good short entry (@ 20.4k) that should have no problem meeting its first target. We can expect a bounce at 17.5k, and a lower high somewhere around the upper quartile of the red pitchfork.
Like always, I will be updating this post in correspondence with new information.
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice and I hold no positions.
GL;HT
Note
Quick update. So we caught the wick up (barely), securing our safe entry. (Wasn’t caught on the PNL on the chart as price dropped before ticking over).
Price has dropped below the VAL and at the same time the psychological 20k support and currently falling to 19k. This is important as it defines a new volume range. I don’t see BTC breaking above 20k in the short term.
New to this update is the Trend-Base Fib Time lines (vertical lines) drawn from point one of the pitchfork down to the swing low (point two), extending outwards from there. Levels displayed are 0, 0.382, 0.616, 1.0, 1.382, 1.618, and 2.0, as these are the most relevant fib levels. This is my first time using the Trend-Base Fib Time tool and I’m interested to see how PA will play out. Levels 1.0 and 1.382 line up with the bounce/support near the ML (as mentioned in the original post), where consolidation will trade against the upper quartile and bring us closer to our first target around July 5th.
Note
That is a very bullish pin bar on the daily!
Doesn't make sense to the TA for me. Whale acting alone? Something to do with the long weekend? Normally I would want to close the trade immediately while in the green, but I'll let this one ride out and move my stop loss to price at entry.
Note
Quick update. Not much going on. Could just be the long weekend and we'll see a move soon.
Looking at the VRVP, we local range could be forming. If we get another rejection above the POC (Point of Control) line this will signal a break downwards as more likely.
Note
Learning by implementation: EW theory. Elliott calls this a "double three" pattern.
Wave W is a zigzag or flat. It is a zigzag here.
Wave X (Corrective Wave in a double three pattern) is typically a zigzag. It is a zigzag here.
Wave Y is a zigzag, flat, or triangle. It is a triangle here.
Rules state there can only be one zigzag (excluding the corrective Wave X)
Note
Divergence on the RSI, OBV, and MACD. Stochastic oversold on the 12-hour.
Divergence on the RSI and MACD on the daily. Stochastic nearing oversold.
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