We are probably in a distribution pump, not an actual bullrun

Updated

This is exactly what happened last time we reached 57k when the Israel war happened,
I'm almost sure this is just a distribution pump and not an actual bull run, the pattern is very simple, OTCs and market makers dumped the price to 56k and bought 4bil German and retail traders' coins, and now pumping it even faster ( most of this pump from 58 to 65k happened on the weekend when US market was closed) they will make artificial range and dump their bag for a couple of days before those Mt.Gox receivers have chance to sell and then they will dump it even harder to buy their bags, I will wait for some time for a new range to be established, then I will start to short as much as I can ( we can still have another final pump in this weekend and maybe we even reach 71-72k)
For now, distribution has still not started, I will update this idea when I think it begins.

Shorting right now is very risky because they want more of the short seller's liquidity to dump their bags so patience is the key here

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Historically speaking we never had a major breakout in Jul and Aug since 2018. Can this time be different? Well, I don't think so. I marked all of Jul and Aug in the chart below

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Some people are saying that the Mt.Gox situation is already priced in. How can a $9 billion gradual sell-off by different individuals, which hasn't even started and will take many months, already be priced in? The price hasn't even dropped a little, and we are still near all-time highs. By the way, today there was another $2 billion movement of BTC from Mt.Gox, and the price dropped 2% again.

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I see signs of profit-taking and distribution, I will wait for the price to reach the 69-70 region to enter a short position

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Well, I thought we go to 69k first! but I noticed there is a bigger factor at play, GrayScale is selling his ETHs like crazy, BTC having another dump so that whales could buy ETH at a cheap price .
I hope you learned your lesson" There is no correlation between news and chart, always price drop first and then news will be started , all those stuffs about trump and his conference is just pure nonsense created to take your money"

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Today we reached 70k and the price immediately dropped to 66.5k , seems like the uptrend is going to be finished soon maybe just one more retest and we are done

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I still believe there is one more leg to the upside and a big short squeeze before going down, yesterday we had an all-time high in open interest, which means there is a lot of hype going on and more buyers are coming in, the best time for market makers to take advantage of people by pumping the price and sell those ETH that they bought at cheap price couple of days earlier

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There is still a lot of room for ETH to go up, I don't think BTC starts a downtrend before ETH reaches a premium zone.
The Game is taking longer because now market makers bought a lot of cheap ETH and they need to sell them too, So we probably still have a couple of weeks left in this distribution before a significant drop initiated

Trade active

IMO it's a good time to buy BTC and ETH at 66500 and 3300, I expect another distribution pump in a couple of days or even hours. I already bought some

Trade closed: stop reached

Well I made a mistake buying this, I thought I can time the market but I failed , but whatever we live to learn from our mistakes ...

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Today, I realized that the same guys I mentioned earlier, who bought most of German BTCs (B2C2 group, which is owned by the SBI group), have finished selling their tokens due to the banking crisis in Japan. This is likely the main reason for the crazy pumps in XRP alongside BTC over the last three weeks.
tradingview.com/news/u_today:e79e4d5ef094b:0-is-xrp-price-slump-connected-to-japan-s-banking-crisis/

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BTC retail investors now have to pay for GrayScale BTCs, Germany BTCs , Mt.Gox Btcs and now Japanese financial crisis , I wonder how much more we can stay at this elevated prices

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Well seems like this was the plan after all ... Now it seems very probable that they make a new range so that they could buy back and close their shorts slowly but first they need to liquidate all buyers so that the price doesn't jump up again

uchar1

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