Short

Bitcoin - Am I the only one that doesn't drink the Kool-aid?

Updated

BTC is indeed correlated to QQQ... if the Nasdaq falls, so will Bitcoin. Check the original March 2020 covid crash for proof. So do you believe QQQ will do well? Then you can at least have a chance at making money long BTC. With that being said, there are enormous red flags in this chart... starting with the complete lack of volume at this point. Volume is needed to drive markets up. On BTC's rise you can clearly see the heavy volume was there. But where has it gone? Both of the indicators on the chart show clear divergences, and the most recent price high wasn't supported by nearly as much volume as prior. Why has the volume dried up so badly for Bitcoin? Regardless of the "why", if buying volume doesn't show up price action will continue to drift downward and I can't even make a guess as to how far. With no fundamentals, we can't truly ascertain the value of Bitcoin. We can't calculate EPS, P/E ratio, etc. So there is almost limitless downside to BTC because it's essentially entirely speculation. There is also limitless upside, but macromarket headwinds are growing stronger and stronger and there's no way BTC moves strongly upward without the wider markets doing well. And they are most definitely NOT doing well.

Normally a double top or a Head and Shoulders would have it's total height mirrored downward to attain a target. That doesn't work well here because... it'd be at or below zero! I'm not THAT bearish! For now I am content in just assuming it's going to continue to trend downward and I'll watch for some bullish signs that hint towards a strong rebound.

Sorry I couldn't give you better news Bitcoin Bulls! Good news for you guys is I also thought Paypal would spike up on earnings and... uhhh... that didn't quite work out!

Trade active

I was a little worried with the whole Russian debacle where there was talk about people fleeing to bitcoin. But that's fizzled and I still don't think this thing can buck the market headwinds....which appear to be getting stronger. I think far too many people analyze Bitcoin SOLELY through technical analysis. That makes perfect sense, considering it has no real fundamentals..... but technical analysis in one security alone won't show the intermarket effects at play. Bitcoin, to me, is still a pure speculative play.....and speculative plays haven't done well lately.

Trade closed: target reached

I have made what I wanted out of this thing. If it loses support at $30,000 I'll likely open another short on it, but I think a short term bounce is in the works. I still don't fully understand BTC but one thing is for sure - It is NOT a hedge against inflation.

Note

BTC got rocked. That being said, it's time to go long?

digital_precision

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